#PredictiveAnalytics #SocialMedia #jobs
We all know the job-search routine: find a job you might want, send a resume, fill out an application, sit for an interview and, assuming you decide the job is for you, get hired.
But with the advent of social media, employers not only have ways to find out things about you, they can do social media profiles, so-called predictive analytics, on you to determine whether you have the characteristics they want.
Rodd Wagner, best-selling author and confidential adviser to senior business and government leaders, discussed this in a Jan. 21, 2016, column in USA Today. Wagner’s most recent book is titled, “Widgets: The 12 New Rules for Managing Your Employees As If They’re Real People.”
Wagner’s book title is ominous, though most of us have probably had jobs in which the boss may not have looked at us as “people.” We were more like “assets,” or “human resources.”
Few people realize how much digital evidence they leave in their wake, Wagner writes. A person’s profile of the “Big Five” personality traits – openness, conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness and neuroticism – can be discovered through a person’s Facebook posts and likes, and machine coding of what the person has written online, Wagner writes.
We’ve all heard creepy stories of prospective employers demanding to know one’s Facebook password, so he can delve more deeply into one’s personality. We’ve also heard stories of schoolteachers and other public figures being fired for posting a picture of himself or herself enjoying a harmless glass of wine.
Many of us don’t think that what we do online is in the public domain. We may think that only our “friends” see it. Now, Wagner asserts, an online profile of you can be created through patterns of activities on social media and elsewhere in the digital world.
Is this fair? Fairness doesn’t matter. Employers will do whatever is legal and possible to find out everything they can about you, especially if they are hiring you for a big-time or sensitive job.
Wagner writes that this process is messy. Poor decisions will be made because of that evidence. There will be abuses. There will be lawsuits, either because the computer picked someone else for a promotion, or, if predictive analysis proves far superior than human judgment, because a company relied solely on people rather than machines to make its decision.
Messiness also produces backlash, Wagner writes. There will be legislation and court rulings to redefine worker privacy and managerial discretion in the predictive analytics world. The goal is to ensure that science serves employees with a better job fit and opportunities, as much as it serves the business, Wagner writes.
The moral here is to be careful on social media. Watch out for political discussions, controversial posts etc. Read them if you must, but react to them publicly at your peril, if you ever intend to look for a job. “Like” a cute picture, but be wary of “liking” a controversial drawing or cartoon.
Most of all, take care in what you write. You can be yourself, and still be somewhat unassuming. Be careful in complaining about someone, or something. Make sure your posts are as positive as they can be.
Of course, if you’d like not to have to worry about predictive analytics, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau. You’ll find a way to save money, make money and avoid confrontation with a prospective employer.
Your online activity can say lots about you, whether it’s correct or not. You may have a hard time correcting incorrect perceptions should you have to confront predictive analytics.
Peter
Tag Archives: jobs
FINANCIAL DISASTERS CREATE MISERY, BUT THERE IS HOPE
#investing #investors #TheBigShort
The year 2008 was a pivotal financial year for most of us.
If we didn’t lose our home, lose our job or lose our retirement savings – or, God forbid, all of the above — we were among the lucky.
The movie “The Big Short” illustrates how the economy can collapse when Wall Street gets creative, and mixes in a little fraud.
In many cases, we are asked to sign documents we don’t necessarily read from cover to cover. If you’ve ever bought property or gotten a mortgage, you rely on the person who is presenting the material to you to give you a summary of what it all says. We tend to trust that person explicitly that we are not being led down a destructive path – one that means big money to him or her at our expense.
Not only do we, generally, not have time to read such documents cover to cover, even if we did, we would not understand some of them. Some people don’t want us to understand them, because they’ve put something in them with a “gotcha” that hurts us.
“The Big Short tells a story that the Wall Street bankers themselves didn’t read what they were signing on for. When a few decided to read the documents, they found them filled with risky mortgage investments that were not highly rated. So, they created vehicles that allowed them to bet against those investments.
Many of those on Wall Street do what they can to make money quickly. When greed sets in, fraud becomes a great threat. Still, many who work on Wall Street are good, honest people. Even they get caught, sometimes unwittingly, into the mess when such messes occur.
We who are not on Wall Street have to make money the old-fashioned way, with work, savings and time. Many of us don’t have the wherewithal to turn around a quick investment that would make a fortune that will last our lifetimes.
Still, we don’t have to resort to greed, fraud and financial “creativity” to make a potential fortune. There are many ways out there for those of us not on Wall Street to turn our financial situations around. For one of the best, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau. Yes, you’ll still need time to realize the potential, but the trajectory could be considerably shortened from that of relying on a traditional job.
“The Big Short” also revealed how bad the investors who bet against the risky mortgage-backed securities felt when their wisdom paid off. It hurt them that their profit came at the expense of many other innocent people.
The moral, perhaps, isn’t that making a profit is bad. It’s more on the angle of how one makes a profit. If he can do it without hurting others, that profit feels much better.
If one can make a profit by helping others do the same, that’s ideal.
Most investment advisers suggest that, as an investor, one must remove emotion from the decision-making. A few develop investment products designed to make the world a better place, making the investor feel good about what he is doing.
The range, perhaps, between those two extremes is to invest in things that help others, while having a plan to help oneself have, say, a comfortable retirement. Proper investing can lead to a degree of comfort, even when greed and fraud on Wall Street is exposed, or when circumstances take the markets in wild directions.
No market goes up in a straight line. Success comes with failures mixed in. But a good, prudent plan can protect each investor from almost anything. Good advice from someone you trust is essential, preferably not from someone who gets “creative” with financial products.
Peter
CHANGE COMES WHETHER WE ARE READY … OR NOT: PART 3
“Judge a man by his questions rather than his answers.”
Voltaire, philosopher
#TryDifferent #change #reorganization
If change comes to your workplace, and you are expected to be part of it, how do you embrace it?
Karl G. Schoemer discussed this in his book, “Try Different, Not Harder: 15 Rules for Mastering Change.”
So let’s set up the scenario: Your company is reorganizing. You will be placed in a job which you never expected to do. Your boss tells you to figure it out. You are scared to death. What do you do?
Schoemer says, ”Step on the gas. Don’t just improve the process, look critically to see whether the process is necessary anymore. … Don’t study it to death. Forget perfect. You need to be fast and good enough.”
In other words, if your organization is changing, EVERYONE will be working on the fly. Many people will be new in their roles. Many won’t have a clue where to begin, yet they MUST begin.
Complacency is worse than fear. Don’t be afraid to ask questions like, “how did they do this before and why was it done that way?” Then, if that question is answered, find a better way to do it.
Just as jobs become different from what you may have been originally hired for, processes become outdated or obsolete. You embrace change not by sticking with the old, but by finding the new.
When looking for the new, you may find opportunity. Opportunity comes to those who don’t necessarily look for it, but to those who look for other things that can make the work easier, cheaper and better. To say it another way, as Schoemer writes: when you put yourself out there and embrace change, solutions can find you. If you hide behind what was, the solutions remain hidden from you.
Suppose you are one of those whose company has changed, and you are not a part of it? You have to embrace your own change, rather than complain about what you have lost.
You have to put yourself out there. Look for your own solutions. They may come from people and places you would never expect. If you keep looking, eventually you will find what you need and what you want.
If you need some help looking for such solutions, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau. You may find something you never thought you would look for. But that’s part of embracing change – finding the unexpected and realizing what you have found.
“Opportunities today are so widespread that the challenge has become sorting through them,” Schoemer writes.
To find the opportunities to sort through, one must look. Sometimes, it may be uncomfortable to look. Perhaps it’s even difficult to do something you’ve never done before. Still, you will know that you can do what you need to do, even if it’s uncomfortable, even if it’s not perfect, even if it’s not ideal.
So become flexible like putty, rather than hard like concrete. Be curious and ask questions, rather than presume you have all the answers. Be open to learning new things, rather than closed by only what you know.
Embrace change, rather than hug the past. Though the latter seems more comfortable and cozy, the former will propel you to success.
Peter
THE SINCERE PLEASURE AND AUDACITY OF GETTING OLDER
#gettingolder #gettingold #aging
Young people worry about everything – their looks, their climb up the corporate ladder, how their children will turn out etc.
For Dominque Browning, who recently turned 60, aging has become liberating. All those things she worried about in her youth she now finds almost laughable. Oh, and her excuse? “I’m too old for this,” she says.
Browning tackled the topic of aging in a liberating way in a New York Times article. It was also published in the summer of 2015 by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
As a young person, you tend to believe that you want to be young forever. You hear older people lament that “youth is wasted on the young.” In other words, you’d love to have had the wisdom and years of knowledge that you have at age 60 when you were, say, 30.
Browning writes that a younger woman advised her that “old” may be the wrong word. Perhaps at 60 she is too wise for this, or too smart for this. “But old is the word I want,” she writes.
“I’ve earned it.”
She writes that women inflict torture on themselves by obsessing about things. “If we don’t whip ourselves into loathing, then mean girls, hidden like trolls under every one of life’s bridges, will do it for us,” Browning writes.
Instead, she writes, one should be happy that the body one has is healthy, presuming it is. She says she’s too old for skintight jeans, 6-inch stilettos, tattoos or green hair.
Let’s look at the wider picture. Let’s say you are 50 years old, and have been told you are no longer needed at your job. You look at other jobs, perhaps ones that may be more physically demanding. Do you tell yourself, “I’m too old for this?”
Or, do you take on one of those jobs to prove that you aren’t too old, presuming the employer hires you – and there’s certainly no guarantee of that.
Employers generally see age as a disadvantage, no matter what the job. They may not be allowed by law to discriminate, but there’s nothing telling them they can’t tell you – the older worker – that they have chosen someone else. If you try to prove age discrimination, good luck. You’ll need all the evidence you can find, and you still may not succeed.
So what to do if that predicament arises at 50? Or even younger? There are many ways out there to earn money, without a traditional job. For one of the best, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau. If you like what you see, you might be able to one day gleefully show the employer who dumped you that you didn’t need him after all.
Imagine seeing your children, or younger colleagues, sweating each day as they go to work. They don’t know when they might get shown the door. It might come at a worse time for them than it did for you. But you will have done what you needed to do to put your life in order again, perhaps even making it more prosperous in the process.
How fun would it be if those younger folks presented you with the trials and tribulations of the working world, and you could say to yourself, “I’m too old for this.”
Remember, it’s best not to gloat, and to keep one’s thoughts to oneself in that regard. However, if you are reaching, shall we say, advanced age milestones, don’t fret. Use the wisdom you’ve gathered, and the energy you still have to create a second, and perhaps more prosperous and rewarding, life.
As discussed previously, wishers wish they were young again. Dreamers don’t care how old they are. There is so much to be said for being older, and not having to face the insecurities many young people face today. If you are older, you’ve lived in some good times. Now it’s time to do what you must to make your future even better.
Peter
THE GREATEST TIME IN HUMAN HISTORY
#dreamers #focus #BrianTracy
We are living in the greatest time in all of human history.
That’s how Brian Tracy, author of “Eat That Frog,” starts his other book, “Bulls-Eye: The Power of Focus.”
The phrase may give one pause, especially in light of fighting in the Middle East, an economy still unkind to many and the many signs of hatred rearing their ugly heads.
Tracy also says, “there is no reason for you not to be earning twice as much as you are today, or even five times as much.” It’s all about clarity, focus and concentration, he adds.
Some may wonder what Tracy has been smoking. After all, the trend in wages is stagnant, or heading downward. Some people had good jobs six or seven years ago, that are now gone. Some are working part time when they want to work full time.
But Tracy says if you are clear about what you want, you focus on your most important goals and activities and concentrate single-mindedly until you have completed your tasks and achieved your goals, there’s no stopping what you can do.
Certainly, as Tracy points out, those who succeed by and large work harder than most, stay committed to what they want to achieve and put most other things aside. But here’s the thing: most of those successful people started out with no special skills or talents. They learned necessary new skills and didn’t give up when others might have.
In short, these folks were no different from anyone else at the beginning.
The next logical step: anyone can be one of those successful people.
Some are dreamers. Your parents may have criticized people they believed were dreamers, equating them with, say, drifters. But really successful people have big dreams, and are confident enough in themselves to do what they need to do to realize those dreams.
Others, as Tracy points out, are merely wishers. They wish they had more money, better looks, more power, but don’t have the wherewithal inside them to go after it.
Wishers give up when the going gets tough. Usually, they follow with blaming someone else, or circumstances, for their lack of success.
Wishers bail on their dreams when others tell them they’ll never accomplish them.
Dreamers keep at their dreams, because those dreams are more powerful than anyone’s opinion of them.
Perhaps you have a powerful dream, the drive to achieve it but might lack a vehicle to get you to your destination. There are many great vehicles out there. For one of the best, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau. You’ll find some big dreamers like you who’ve done what they needed to do to get where they want to go, from a place similar to yours right now.
It’s been said that there are those who watch things happen, those who make things happen and others who wonder what happened. When things happen, make other things happen that will get you back on track toward your dream.
As Tracy points out, one can start out with nothing. Dreamers will get what they want eventually by learning the skills they need. Wishers will give up along the way, complain of their fate and make fun of the dreamers. Dreamers never quit.
Peter
SECRET OF SUCCESS? MAKING UP ONE’S MIND
Many of us look at people we deem successful and believe we cannot be like them.
Either we believe our circumstances are holding us down, or we believe we are not as smart as successful people are or that luck is not on our side.
Rory Vaden, co-founder of Southwest Consulting, spoke to one of the most successful people he knows, Spencer Hays, founder of Tom James fine clothing and executive chairman of The Southwestern Co. Vaden discussed that conversation in a column in the June 28, 2015, edition of The Tennessean newspaper in Nashville.
According to Vaden, Hays believes that success is simply a choice. It’s the choice to do whatever it takes – or not – to be successful.
To most of us, that’s a very simplistic answer. We all would choose success over failure. But it’s not a matter of wanting success in the abstract. It’s a matter of defining success in one’s own mind, and going out and getting it.
In other words, make up your mind to be successful and do what you need to do.
Vaden said the idea of making up one’s mind to be successful was the one thing that Hays said that struck him in his conversation.
It appears to many that making up one’s mind to be successful is very difficult. How many people do you know start something and give up without finishing it, especially when things got tough? These people wanted to be successful at the beginning, but later discovered that what they had to do to get there was not worth the effort or the sacrifice.
An idea has to travel from one’s head, to one’s heart, to one’s gut. When one finds what he wants to do, he does what he needs to do to accomplish it, no matter what happens.
Another scenario: how many people do you know who had a goal, but listened to those who told him he could never accomplish it? The naysayers believe they mean well, and some actually do. But the successful person believes more in what he wants to achieve than he does others’ opinions of him or his goal.
We can certainly find people who might tell the person who lost a job that it was his own fault. Most of us have circumstances we can’t control. Those are not important. What’s important is how we respond when those circumstances hit.
We can complain, and convince ourselves that the world is against us. Or, we can look for something that will give us the motivation we need to conquer our circumstances.
A third scenario: a person has the motivation, work ethic and has made up his mind to be successful. He just needs a vehicle to help him find success. If you are one of those, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau. It’s one of many, and one of the best, such vehicles for personal success and for helping others find success.
Choosing success is not like choosing from a restaurant menu. You can’t just say you want something and someone else is going to bring it to you. Choosing success is choosing to do what you need to do, regardless of whom or what surrounds you. It’s about believing in your goal, and pursuing it above all other things – except family and friends.
It’s having faith in what you know is good, regardless of what others think. If you choose success, you’ve chosen wisely.
Peter
MORE JOBS, LESS SECURITY
#jobs #security #parttimejobs
The United States is gaining jobs, but more of them are part time, pay less than the ones lost and employees haven’t had raises in years.
Sure, McDonald’s, Wal-Mart and other companies have announced employee raises with great fanfare recently, but many of those who work there can’t make a decent living on what they earn.
Associated Press reporters Josh Boak and Christopher S. Rugaber tackled this issue in an article published June 14, 2015 in the Tennessean newspaper in Nashville. In that same Tennessean edition, Paul Davidson of USA Today said many who are working part time are doing so reluctantly.
If you grew up in the 1950s or 1960s, you are at or near retirement. Hopefully, you retired, or will retire, on your own terms. Many have not. If you are currently in your 20s, looking for steady work, perhaps you are cobbling together an income, however inadequate, with one or more part-time jobs. If you are doing that, what are the prospects of you getting the full-time job you need? Are you still living at home with Mom and Dad, and don’t really want to, but can’t afford not to?
The Associated Press article quotes Lena Allison, 54, of Los Angeles. She lost her job as a kindergarten teacher and has worked temporary jobs since. “More people may be working jobs, but they’re like these serial part-time jobs,” the article quotes her.
The AP reporters also point out that hiring has surged in the health care, retail, construction and hospitality and leisure industries. Rick Rieder, a Black Rock investment officer quoted in the AP article, says the country is beginning to see the start of broad-based wage growth. That opinion would surprise many Americans, the reporters say.
But here’s what could trigger wage growth: lower productivity. In the first three months of 2015, productivity dropped 3.1 percent after a 2.3 percent drop in the fourth quarter of 2014, the AP reporters say. Productivity had expanded 2.1 percent annually, on average, since 2000, they add. Companies have been slow to invest in equipment and other assets that might make their workers produce more. Therefore, hiring more workers in the short run could combat that, the AP reporters say.
Still, most workers are collecting no benefits or vacation time with their jobs.
Let’s face it. For most people who have lost jobs in the last few years, the ones they’ve gotten to replace them, if they’ve been so lucky, pay less than the jobs they lost. For those fortunate enough to survive the downsizings, most are working harder and probably haven’t had a raise in quite some time. Fortunately for those employers, these employees probably have no better place to go.
What’s an employee to do in these situations? First, if you have a job you like that pays well, don’t let it go. But, don’t presume it will always be there. Most people are one reorganization, or one bad manager, away from an untenable employment situation. Look for a Plan B that can help you make an extra income while you work, so, if the worst case happens, you can leave your job with a smile.
If you are in need of something to relieve an immediate income problem, the same solution could apply. There are lots of great ways to make extra income outside the traditional employment arena. For one of the best, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau.
Don’t let the numbers fool you. Things may appear to be getting better as far as economic numbers go, but little has trickled down to the average person. With very few ways to get meaningful help from this situation, decide today to help yourself. Save more. Spend less. Look for a Plan B. Don’t waste energy complaining about what is. Use that energy to look for, and find, what can be.
Peter
ARE OUR LIVES TOO CONVENIENT?
#convenience #inconvenience #tooconvenient
Is there such a thing as being “too convenient?
Eric Weiner refuses to buy an Apple Watch because it would make his life too easy.
Weiner, author of the forthcoming book, “The Georgraphy of Genius: A Search for the World’s Most Creative Places From Ancient Athens to Silicon Valley,” discussed this in a column he wrote for the Los Angeles Times, published in the June 7, 2015, edition of the News Sentinel in Knoxville, Tennessee.
Though he is not advocating the return of the inconvenient Paleolithic Era, he writes that too often we fail to recognize the full cost of our convenient lives. He cites all the plastic K-cups clogging the ecosystem, as well as personal and social costs of convenience.
The cost to workers of convenience can be harsh. A company can find a machine, or mechanical process, to do the work once done by humans. When that happens, humans lose their jobs and, in today’s world, may not be able to replace them.
Think, too, of all those disposable diapers, which Weiner cites. Yes, diaper pails and laundering cloth diapers is very inconvenient, and can be smelly, too. But those disposables s don’t recycle, though there are experiments around the world attempting to recycle them. Usually, though, they just go into the environment and, hopefully, degrade eventually.
Weiner also cites the convenience of shopping at Amazon. Point, click, enjoy, he says. Online shopping has led to the closing of many stores and placed store clerks, managers, shelf stockers etc., out of work.
Weiner says we, as humans, crave boundaries, obstacles and inconvenience. Buddhism is not an easy religion, as anyone who has attempted to meditate for five minutes can attest, he writes.
Yet, it’s an immensely popular religion worldwide, he says.
If, as Weiner quotes the late philosopher Robert Nozick’s notion that, we could imagine a happiness machine, would we want to be hooked up to it? Though the instinctive answer might be yes, the actual answer is no, because we want to earn our happiness, he says.
That brings to mind the notion that we appreciate more the things that we earn, than those we are given. If a college student has to pay for his own education, the thought goes, he will work harder in school. If the student is given a full scholarship, he may not work as hard.
Obviously, that doesn’t apply to everyone. Those with real gratitude are thankful for any blessings they are given. They will work to ensure that those blessings are not wasted, and will pay it forward as opportunities arise.
If you are looking for such a blessing, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau. You’ll see stories of others, perhaps like you, who have been blessed beyond their wildest imaginations, realized it and worked not only to help themselves, but also to help others take advantage of those blessings.
Yes, our lives are certainly more convenient than those of our parents, grandparents and other ancestors. If you believe your forebears were happily inconvenient, perhaps they were. But true happiness has to start from within, and not necessarily be influenced by the things around us.
So be happy, healthy and prosperous. Choose your conveniences wisely.
Peter
THE DISAPPEARING AMERICAN DREAM, PART 2: RETIREMENT PREPARATION ISN’T WHAT IT USED TO BE
#AmericanDream, #disappearingAmericanDream, #economicgrowthrates #retirementplanning
Retirement planning is complicated for Americans of all ages.
So says Jeff Reeves, editor of InvestorPlace.com, who wrote a column for USA Today. It was published in the May 10,2015, edition of The Tennessean newspaper of Nashville.
The Employee Benefit Research Institute, in a 2014 survey, found that only 64 percent of Americans have saved any money for retirement to supplement Social Security benefits. It says that roughly six of 10 Americans have less than $25,000 saved for retirement, according to Reeves’ article.
Certainly, if you are young – say, in your 20s and 30s – retirement is a long way off. Or, so you think. Time travels with break-neck speed, and 30 years can go by very quickly. It’s never too early to save, even if it’s only, say, $5 a week. That may be one visit to Starbucks that you would be sacrificing.
Your parents and grandparents probably were diligent savers. Perhaps they were disciplined and never touched their retirement money.
In their day, perhaps, jobs didn’t disappear more quickly than cake at a child’s birthday party.
If you are young, you face a daunting task of keeping a good job for as long as you want it. If you are older, say, in your 40s and 50s, perhaps you had a good job for a long time, and it’s now gone.
All this complicates saving for retirement, so that task requires extra discipline, perhaps more than your parents or grandparents had.
Despite all the gloom-and-doom reports, Social Security is likely to survive. Benefits could be reduced a bit, but it should survive. The question to ask yourself is, what kind of lifestyle will I have on Social Security alone? Even if you add in a pension, should you be fortunate enough to have one, it’s still not going to be that much. If you are a careful, disciplined person, you would have spent your whole life watching every dollar. Your retirement years should be enjoyable, not ones of deprivation.
Well, one does not have to rely on a job, pensions etc., to have a good retirement. One does not have to engage in risky, unsafe investments to get a decent return.
But, to achieve that, one has to be motivated to want to change his situation, rather than accept it and complain about it.
If you are that type of person, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau. Check out how many people from all different backgrounds, education levels and skills are not only securing their retirement, but helping others do the same.
Many of us do not want to take handouts, but want to get what was promised to us. Promises can, and often are, broken. That’s why motivated people look outside what they are used to and find a new way to prosperity.
Now, if you are indeed young, you can save your way to prosperity. Reeves quotes John Sweeney of Fidelity Investments as saying, “we are seeing many examples of people who have $1 million in a 401(k) because they started early, they diligently contributed and kept to it.”
That’s more difficult to do as jobs come and go, and jobs, if they are replaced, are often replaced with ones paying and providing less.
But the discipline you will acquire if you diligently save and not touch those savings until later years, and put those savings in the hands of a trusted financial adviser that won’t gobble up too much in fees, you can secure potentially great retirement.
The new Voya ads talk about “orange money,” that one must put away for retirement and not spend. Designate your own “orange money,” or whatever color you deem it, so you won’t have to scrape together an old age of deprivation.
Peter
THE DISAPPEARING AMERICAN DREAM, PART 1: NUMBERS TELL PART OF THE STORY
#AmericanDream #disappearingAmericanDream #economicgrowthrates
The American Dream is disappearing, by many accounts.
America needs the 3.5% solution.
No, it’s not a chemical that will magically remove all our country’s woes.
It an economic growth rate we once saw as a nation, but for which there is no projection to ever achieve again, under current circumstances.
That’s the premise of an article by U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Louis Woodhill, an economics writer and venture investor. The article was published May 1, 2015, in The Wall Street Journal.
Then, on May 3, 2015, Michael W. Kraus, assistant professor of psychology at the University of Illinois, Shai Davidai, a Ph.D. candidate in psychology at Cornell University and A. David Nussbaum, adjunct assistant professor of behavioral science at the University of Chicago published an article in the New York Times that says we vastly overestimate the amount of upward mobility in our society.
Finally, Peter Morici, professor of economics at the University of Maryland, says the slow job growth and low interest rates are decreasing the number of “safe” investments for savings, while allowing big companies cheap money for mergers and acquisitions. Morici’s column appeared in the May 12, 2014, edition of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
What does all this mean for the average working person – or, perhaps, the average person who is no longer working? If you get a new job, it will likely pay less than the one you lost. You’ll struggle to get any kind of return on what little you are able to save, if anything at all. And, the big companies will combine into entities that will put more people out of work.
Cassidy and Woodhill say the Congressional Budget Office projects a meager growth rate of 2.3% for the gross domestic product over the next decade. Meanwhile, from 1790 to 2014, the average growth rate was 3.73%, they say. However, the two men have a way they believe will help generate the kind of growth the U.S. needs to prosper: allow oil exports, and not taxing repatriated overseas profits of U.S. companies.
Cassidy and Woodhill point out another fact: had the GDP grown from 2001 to 1014 at the 3.87 annual rate it had grown between 1993 and 2000, the federal government would have had a $500 billion surplus in 2014, instead of that big a deficit. Certainly, a 1 percent difference in the economic growth rate makes a big difference in the outcome for all of us. The writers also point out that current GDP growth per person is $2,433, lower than Papua New Guinea’s.
If we are truly in for growth rates in the 2s rather than the 3s, we will certainly see a decrease in upward mobility, as the trio who wrote in The New York Times suggest.
To extrapolate more on Morici’s column, low interest rates cannot be sustained forever. Average people usually can’t go looking for riskier investments at higher returns, lest they get burned. Yet, Morici says that is what some are doing.
Let’s look at Cassidy’s and Woodhill’s recommendations. Oil-company TV ads are telling us that the U.S. is currently the No. 1 producer of natural gas, and soon to be No. 1 in oil. The tendency, after decades of buying energy ingredients from countries who hate us, is to keep all that oil and gas we are now producing to ourselves.
But Cassidy and Woodhill say we should sell some of it. Perhaps we should analyze what it would cost us to ship the oil and gas elsewhere, vs. distributing it domestically. It’s cheaper, for example to ship Alaskan oil to Japan and other Pacific nations, rather than getting it to the U.S. mainland.
Then, there are the profits U.S. companies make overseas. There are trillions of U.S. assets awaiting repatriation. But, much of that would go to taxes in the current milieu. One has to analyze whether it’s better to bring the money home, tax-free, and put it to work here, vs. allowing it to sit in foreign institutions while we still collect no taxes on it. That’s certainly worth a full vetting.
As for our own prosperity, you may be among those who have given up looking for work, or who has been forced to take a job that pays less than the one you lost. The good news: there are many ways out there to make incomes without having to have a traditional job. Sure, there is work involved, but no boss and no threat of layoffs. For one of the best, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau.
Sometimes, when all looks bleak, there’s a huge ray of hope that will guide those who would go for it. It may require new thinking and motivation, but sitting around complaining of bleakness and wishing ill on those who have it better than you accomplishes nothing.
Peter
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