THE ECONOMY: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITY

#economy #wages #prices #PerceptionOfEconomy #EconomicData
The data show the economy is good, even robust.
But people don’t always see it that way. They see prices that are higher than a few years ago on almost everything.
So why the difference between data and perception?
First, almost everything costs more than a few years ago for a few reasons. First, some companies are trying to make up for their losses during the pandemic. Some may call that price gouging, but it becomes that only when prices stay up AFTER the losses have been made up.
Secondly, almost everyone is getting paid more than they were a few years ago. If you are not in this category, look around for other opportunities. They are out there, in many places.
To help pay for those higher wages, companies raise the price of what they sell or make.
There are certain categories of prices that have unique issues. Housing (rents and purchases) prices are up. There are lots of entities out there competing with individual families for housing. They buy properties for cash and rent them out at rents that are often unaffordable for many.
That takes many houses off the market for individuals, and raises rents for renters.
Auto insurance and repairs are another unique category. Today’s cars are a lot more complex than those from the past. What may look like a simple repair gets complicated because systems in the cars may have to be recalibrated. That could double or triple the cost of a simple repair.
The same could be said for home repairs. That may be why repair insurance companies have a market, and why auto and homeowner’s insurance in general have risen in price.
No matter who serves in the U.S. government, he or she can only do so much to bring prices down.
The good news here is that if you are making more money in your job, most data show that your higher pay is outpacing inflation.
That begs the question: would you prefer lower pay and lower prices, or the current situation? Before answering that, know that the data again shows price inflation coming down.
We may never see $1 a gallon gasoline again. Those pandemic prices, when no one was going anywhere, may not return unless there is another pandemic. No one wants that.
Food prices are also affected by distributors, who are raising their prices. Also, one has to consider climate issues that affect the growth of what we eat. If food can’t grow as well, or gets destroyed in storms, what is not affected is going to be more expensive.
Therefore, be skeptical of anyone who runs for public office who says he or she will lower prices.
There may be things they can do to mitigate inflation, but the government can’t subsidize everything, and it has limited ability to force producers and sellers to lower prices on what they make or sell. The main thing that will affect pricing is whether people buy things at the price charged. Some necessities have to be bought, but we may want to try to use less of those if we can.
The government can lower your taxes on certain things as one mitigation. But, the government can’t control pricing, nor do we necessarily want it to.
Certainly, your parents or grandparents paid less to live in their younger years than you do now. But, in that time, much progress has been made. Society, as a whole, has seen much improvement.
The betterment of society comes at a price. Most of us do not want to go back to the “good old days.”
Peter

ARE YOU BETTER OFF THAN YOUR PARENTS?

#housing #YoungAdults #HighCostOfLiving #HousingPrices #parents
If you are a young adult, do you believe you will have a better life than your parents?
In decades past, and, perhaps, still today, parents’ goal was to give their child(ren) a better life than they had.
But, young folks today, in large numbers, don’t see that as a possibility.
Many of them still rely on help from their parents to get through daily life.
Remember last week, we talked about the cost of going to work? Now, we will examine one of the effects.
Perhaps this problem began as home prices really started to accelerate back in the 1970s. Many children who grew up in relatively affluent towns could not afford to live there on their own as adults. They could not afford the home prices or apartment rentals.
So, if they wanted to stay close to home, they moved to nearby towns and cities that were not nearly as affluent and had more affordable housing options.
Perhaps, they thought, someday they’d have enough money to move back to the town in which they grew up. Maybe, they could even inherit mom and dad’s house when they died. This was when living at home with mom and dad was, shall we say, less desirable.
Today, young people are really feeling the squeeze. The jobs they can get, even with a college education, don’t pay much more, figuring for inflation, than they did back in the 1970s.
But housing costs during those decades have ballooned. Housing that was unaffordable in the 1970s is completely out of reach today for young folks.
Even housing in the less affluent towns has become more difficult for young folks to buy, or even rent.
Add to that the rising cost of everything else: food, fuel, day care, education etc., and starting a life in one’s 20s today without help is nearly impossible.
Many in that age group are postponing marriage, children and other life expectations (at least their parents expect them) because of costs. Never mind that some of them are already burdened with student loan debt.
Today’s employers are not seeing young people coming into the workforce in droves because they can’t live on what they will be paid.
Companies are expanding and relocating to new environs, thus creating jobs. But few of the jobs they are creating will go to people who already live in those places. They will go to people who will move to those locales because of the jobs, which brings increasing property values that aggravate the problem.
As an aside, American retirees moving overseas to less expensive countries are pricing the young locals there out of some of their markets.
For many young people today, getting ahead financially is a somewhat foreign concept. How to survive, day to day, is a more pressing matter.
There are signs that wages are rising, contributing to inflation and creating an economic chicken-and-egg roller coaster for everyone.
So, starting an adult life is hard today. The idea of finding a first apartment, or house, that is affordable, then trading up over time may be foolhardy thinking.
A combination of public and private solutions to this problem are in demand right now. Perhaps the catalyst to solving this problem may lie in an idea no one has yet conceived.
Still, it’s vitally important for young people to cultivate and maintain optimism. You are the future. You, and your cohort, may be the ones to solidify that future for your whole generation.
Peter


IT’S TOUGH BEING A YOUNG ADULT, LOOKING FOR HOUSING

#housing #HousingCosts #YoungAdults #BuyingAHouse #SellingAHouse
It’s not easy being a young adult today, trying to build a life.
As Bill Torpy, columnist for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, points out, the median price for a house in Atlanta today is $405,000. He discussed the perils of young adults and housing in his May 12, 2024, column.
If you are 20-something, married or single, can you afford $405,000 for a house?
With rents on apartments also skyrocketing, it’s no wonder many young people are still leaning on “the bank of mom and dad” for help.
There are a number of issues driving up housing costs.
In decades past, a young person could get an affordable apartment to live in until he or she was able to buy a house. After all, The American Dream included home ownership.
They would buy their first house and live there until they outgrew it. Then, they would sell it to buy a bigger house. They would keep trading up in housing size as needed, until they reached retirement age.
Then, they might sell their bigger house and trade down to a smaller one, perhaps in a retirement locale with the various amenities for older folks.
That pattern is more or less out the window today. Buying and selling real estate has become something of a cut-threat endeavor.
In those old days, a person starting out might offer a price for a house that was a bit less than the seller had asked. The seller, looking for a firm sale, would usually accept. Today, it’s more likely that a buyer will have to bid up from the asking price, and might still lose out.
The demand for housing today is way over what the supply is. Because people can’t make any more land, most property available for building has been spoken for. That caps the supply at a certain level, but the population has grown considerably from decades ago, and keeps growing.
Also in the housing mix are entities such as property management companies, hedge funds and real estate investment trusts that tempt sellers with cash offers, leaving many young buyers out of luck.
Meanwhile, apartments and condos are going up like crazy in some areas.
Often, new apartments mean high rent, and new condos can be overpriced and have high owner fees to maintain common areas etc.
Tiny houses, and housing made from shipping containers also have been trending. These are not an option if one plans to have a family, or even a spouse.
Something else is happening today. Many young adults want everything now. They won’t settle for a fixer-upper, or rooms they view as too small. Many want what they are used to – what their parents have. And, they want it now. They are unwilling to accept something less, and work up to what they ultimately want.
If you are young, and do not want to live with mom and dad for the rest of your life, flexibility is the key. Chances are, even if you buy or rent someplace that’s not exactly what you want, figure on making do until you can save enough to afford more. As you trade up, you may not get everything you want at each stage. But, with each stage, you may get something more.
It’s not always possible in some areas to find adequate, affordable housing. But, if you keep looking, you may run into something you can work with. By the way, try not to get too comfortable living with mom and dad.
Remember, too, that a house is a house. A home is what you make with the house you have.
Peter

REAL ESTATE CAN BE HARD TO BUY

#RealEstate #housing #BuyingHouses #SellingHouses #BuildingHouses
To paraphrase a Redfin TV ad: The prospective buyer says the kitchen is a little tight, but they can live with it.
The agent replies: You shouldn’t live with it. You should love it.
Buying real estate, especially a home you plan to live in, can be a frustrating experience.
No home, even one you build from scratch, is perfect.
Existing homes can be even more imperfect. Rarely does a buyer find an existing home that has EVERYTHING he or she wants.
It seems there is always something one has to “live with.”
Usually, there are some things in the home that aren’t perfect, but you can fix them eventually. Therefore, as a buyer, you should price that into your offer.
In the relatively tight real estate market we are in, you may have to pay full price, or bid up, a house that may have things in it you don’t like.
Many of today’s buyers are looking for perfection, and won’t stop until they find it. That’s a nice problem if you are in no hurry to move in.
But, as there are no perfect humans, there are no perfect houses – or, at least, they are very rare. That’s because perfection is only in the eyes of the buyer.
Because of the number of variables in the real estate buying process, the willingness to compromise may be a good trait for buyers.
And, it’s OK to have a bottom line of what you can accept, and what you can pay.
Perfection may lie outside one’s budget.
That’s why an abundance of choice is desirable. It’s good to look at as many homes as possible within the given radius of where you need to live.
In addition to price, another variable may be demand. You may like the first house you see. But if you wait to pull the trigger, so you can look at other houses, your top choice may be gone once you’ve decided.
If you are buying your first house, and are looking for “starter” homes, you may find them few and far between. If you do find a starter, it may be older. Older homes require more work, so don’t be afraid to put the work in over time. In the current market, if you do the “right” things to your house, you’ll get your money back, and, usually, more.
If you elect to build from scratch, find a reputable builder who won’t skip town once your house is done. The cost of building materials have risen to the degree that some builders, who also find it difficult to get the help they need, won’t quote you a firm price or a completion date.
And, watch your new house go up, if you are able. Make sure your builder doesn’t cut corners.
Again, buying real estate is an imperfect science. Buyers and sellers usually have to be flexible. If they are, the process will be less stressful.
In short, you don’t have to love everything about the house you buy. If it meets your needs, and is in a good location for you, you may not want to hesitate to make an offer.
If you hesitate, it could be gone. And, if you are lucky and get a good house, perhaps you can fix the things you don’t love.
Peter


HOUSING MYTHS

#housing #LowIncomeHousing #poverty #gentrification
There are three myths in the housing market.
First, gentrification has as much to do with morals as with economics. Second, there is more poverty in cities than suburbs. Third, having low-income housing in one’s community reduces property values.
Darcel Rockett discussed these myths in an article for the Chicago Tribune, that was also published Dec. 18, 2017, in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Since the term gentrification has many connotations, we won’t spend a lot of time discussing it. Suffice it to say, “We need to take the depth of ethical and moral disgust out of the name gentrifier, so that we can get people together and say this is something that we are a part of, but it’s also something bigger than us …. So how do we move forward?” Rockett quotes John Joe Schlichtman, an associate professor of sociology at DePaul University.
But let’s dive deeper into the other two. Poverty exists everywhere. It’s not an urban problem, suburban problem or a rural problem. Especially since the 2008 recession, you have many people who were once considered “middle class” suddenly without a job, or, suddenly losing their homes.
For some, one or both of those events can create instant poverty, regardless of where one lives.
Secondly, there are many people moving from the suburbs to the cities, essentially gentrifying some urban neighborhoods.
“The number of poor persons in suburban Chicago eclipsed the number in the City of Chicago in the last decade, and there are no signs of this trend reversing anytime soon,” Rockett quotes Scott Allard, a professor at the Evans School of Public Policy and Governance at the University of Washington.
That brings us to low-income housing’s effect on housing prices. Rockett quotes a 2016 Stanford Graduate School of Business analysis that reviewed low-income developments nationwide, funded by the low-income housing tax credit program. The impact of that housing on surrounding property values varied based on neighborhoods’ economic state and the number of minority residents, Rockett quotes the study.
“What the study finds is that the effects of putting one of these (low-income housing developments) in a neighborhood depends on the pre-existing conditions in that neighborhood,” Rockett quotes Anthony DeFusco, assistant professor of finance at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management.
What all of this tells us is that housing – just one segment of the overall economy – cannot be stereotyped. “Instead of building housing and targeting it” to people with income below a certain level, “if you just build more housing, and housing was more plentiful overall, prices in general would be lower and would be more affordable for everyone,” Rockett quotes DeFusco.
Are you living where you want to be living? If not, is it because of finances? Perhaps you need to look at ways to make more money that doesn’t involve a second W-2 job. There are many ways out there to earn extra money – perhaps even surpass the income from your primary job – by spending a few part-time, off-work hours a week. To check out one of the best such vehicles, message me.
As the article intimates, it doesn’t matter how you label housing. Housing comes in all types and price ranges. You should be able to choose the housing, and location, that’s right for you. The more housing options available, the more affordable all housing becomes.
So, here’s hoping you are living where you want, in a place just right for you. Remember, too, that a house is a house. A home is created by the people living in it.
Peter

HOW MUCH HOUSE SHOULD YOU BUY?

#housing #RealEstate #OverHoused
Buying a house is never easy, unless you are, say, an investor paying cash.
Most homebuyers need a mortgage, and getting qualified for one is a process.
Peter Dunn, a financial planner, says many people are “over-housed.” It’s a concept of paying too much money for housing, in relation to one’s income. In some areas, housing prices are over the top, and one cannot help paying too much for a house.
But some over-housing is self-inflicted, Dunn says. He wrote about over-housing in a column in the Jan. 18, 2016, edition of USA Today.
He cites the example of Mark and Jennifer, a Midwestern couple in their mid-40s, who decided 11 years ago to build their “family home.”
Mark and Jennifer knew they were pushing the limit of what they could afford, but the bank approved them for a loan. That gave them reassurance, Dunn writes.
“Things spiraled out of control from there,” Dunn quotes Jennifer.
When housing bubbles burst, it’s the over-housed folks who get slammed first. Are you over-housed? Here are Dunn’s pitfalls: if you’ve dumped everything into a house, and have no emergency fund, you could be in trouble. There are also the realities of increased utility costs, home maintenance, homeowners insurance, property taxes etc. If you didn’t budget for those increases, you could be in trouble.
Mark and Jennifer’s home was 2,000 square feet bigger than their previous home. Their utility costs were much higher and, after two homeowners insurance claims, their premiums went through the roof, Dunn writes. Their tax assessment was based on the value of the land alone. When the structure was added, their tax bill tripled, Dunn writes.
Worse yet, the couple hasn’t saved a dime for the future, Dunn writes. If you’ve given up vacations, new clothes and dining out to live in your new home, you are probably OK, Dunn writes. If you’ve given up your current and future stability, you’re in trouble, he says.
Dunn’s rule of thumb: don’t let the bank tell you how much house you can afford. Being house-rich and cash-poor is not a good situation, especially if housing values plummet, as they did in 2008. Your house is a significant investment, but don’t rely on the equity in it to secure your future. You need to be saving and investing regularly.
The folks who have a comfortable retirement are those who lived BELOW their means, and socked money away. If you buy or build a house, make sure your mortgage payment and other expenses leave a portion of your paycheck left over to save and invest.
Taking vacations and dining out occasionally are nice, too, but saving and investing for retirement are a priority.
Of course, there are ways to earn extra money so you can live in that dream house. For one of the best, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau. You’ll see stories of people who bought their dream home, but not until they had the money – often the cash – to do it.
Remember, too, that homeownership is not for everyone. Though the American Dream may dictate that one owns his own home, give some thought to the life you want to lead before deciding to buy or build. That house could own you, in more ways than one.
In short, do the math before buying or building a home. Make sure the house doesn’t eat too much of your net worth. If you tap out your emergency fund for that down payment, it could come back to bite you.
Just because you think you CAN swing it, doesn’t mean that you SHOULD.
Peter

SILENT ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENTS

#economy
We hear and read that the economy is really improving.
Yet, many of us don’t see it, or feel it.
The reasons may be too numerous to mention all of them, but a few key ones are: you may have lost a good job and gotten a new one, but you are making less money. Many of us had to get back on our feet, sort of, by making less money. That is a trend. Businesses want more and better work, for less.
Here’s another: you had a house. You either lost your house in foreclosure, or you had to sell your house for less than it was worth because you lost your job. Your new job, if you’ve gotten one, pays less, but you had to take a lesser house. What gets you, too, is that some rich investor gobbled up your former house for pennies on the dollar, and is either renting it to someone else in your situation, or has resold it for more than you could have afforded to buy it back. To the investor, the economy is booming. But you don’t feel it.
A third: you were lucky to keep your job that you’ve had all these years. You’ve survived downsizings, buyouts and the like, intact. But you have not had a raise in years. Your costs, for everything, have gone up. You don’t see the boom in the economy. Yet, you are supposed to consider yourself lucky to have survived. Perhaps, it’s the new normal.
For those who already had pretty good means, the economy is improving. They are seeing the recession disappear, and their fortunes return, and even improve. But so many are left in the dust. They have been downsized, resized and even “recovered.” Yet, they may never see anything resembling the life they once had. They were good at what they did, helped their employers do well, but they were forced to find a new life with less.
You start to see signs saying employers are hiring. You check out some of them, and find that the jobs they are hiring for will hardly make you a living, or are part time. Or, perhaps, the jobs not only don’t pay well, they are incompatible with your life. There may be a shortage of truck drivers, as has been recently reported. But having a job that puts you on the road at all hours of the day and night for $50,000 a year just isn’t going to work for you. There was a time when driving a truck paid much better. Those days are gone.
We are starting to read and hear about companies hiring, shortages in certain professions and even new jobs being created. When you check them out, many of them are either beyond your qualifications or they don’t pay nearly what they should. Wages should start to rise in this situation, but they are slow to. Employers still believe there are enough desperate people out there that they can still pay less.
So, if you are not seeing the boom in the economy that many are talking about, you are not alone.
There is good news here. There are many things out there that can provide an alternative to the traditional job. And, they can pay you pretty handsomely. But, as in anything, you have to be a person who wants something badly enough to look at something different.
If you are that person, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau, and see one of the best.
You can mope, cope and hope. Or, you can look outside what you know, get a desire to change things for yourself and take the plunge. In this new world, others will willingly help you succeed.
Some may want you to settle for less. Don’t settle. Succeed.
Peter

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

Today is a day to focus on what is good in your life.
Happy Thanksgiving!
No matter your circumstances, there is much good for which to be thankful. Today, we should think about what we have, not what we don’t have.
Particularly in the last decade, we’ve read about, and heard about, a lot of bad things. Many of us have been personally affected by those things. It’s the media’s job to discuss what divides us. It is our job to focus on what unites us.
In the last few years, we saw housing prices plummet. We saw many lose their homes. Though a good many of us have not yet recovered from that, statistics are showing a rise in home prices and home construction. Home sales may be leveling off a bit, but the recent trend has been positive.
That many be of little comfort to those still struggling. But no matter your circumstances, you likely have much for which to be thankful.
If you enjoy a good, special meal today, remember that many others may not. If you are enjoying that meal with others, remember that many others may be alone.
Yes, today, Nov. 28, 2013, is a day to focus on what is good in your life. It’s a day to focus on what you have, not what you don’t have.
It is also a day to think about what YOU are going to do about the circumstantial breakdowns in your life. Those breakdowns may have been beyond your control, but how you repair them is entirely in your control. You have to plan what will come next in your life, then do it.
Your next step may be outside your comfort zone. That’s OK. Do it anyway. Do it afraid, if you must.
If you are looking for a tool that may help you repair any circumstantial breakdowns, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau. You may look at this tool with some fear, but if your circumstances need fixing, fix them afraid.
Today we focus on what we have — and can have — not what we don’t have. Today, no matter our circumstances, we have much good in our lives.
Be grateful for those, and confident you can fix the circumstances that need repair.
Be grateful, optimistic and fix them afraid.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Peter