#uncertainty #unpredictability #investing #tariffs #InvestmentClimate
How does one invest in a time of uncertainty, as we are in now?
Betsey Stevenson, economics and public policy professor at the University of Michigan, and former chief economist at the U.S. Labor Department, discussed this on MSNBC’s “All In with Chris Hayes on May 15, 2025.
She basically said it was difficult for investors and businesses to plan when things change so frequently.
She and other economists consider this time “uncertain,” as tariffs are implemented, adjusted and/or paused almost daily.
In fact, most investment climates, save for mattress money or insured bank accounts, are “uncertain.” Investors do not know for sure whether the risk(s) they are taking will pan out. They can judge, based on fundamentals and research, the likelihood of an investment panning out.
They also can judge the economic climate to see whether their decisions are more or less likely to pay off.
But, as with all risks, there is always a chance of an investment not proving worthy.
A pandemic, a natural disaster or other unanticipated circumstances could suddenly affect the investment performance.
Or, the company or venture in which one is investing could fail because of human error or mismanagement that one may not foresee.
So, all investments, no matter the climate, are uncertain.
What is happening today makes investing more unpredictable.
Investors are unable to forecast, even if the entity is a good risk on its face, whether the investment pays off.
The purpose of tariffs, essentially, is to urge companies to import less, and make more things in the U.S.
There are myriad problems with that. First, it takes many years for a company, if it were to decide to make more things here, to set up the capacity to do it – build or convert a factory, hire the right people, buy the needed equipment (perhaps from a foreign maker) etc.
Who knows what would happen to the tariffs during that conversion period.
Secondly, there are things that we just can’t grow in the U.S. Bananas are tariffed, yet we do not have the climate to grow them. Coffee is tariffed, but Hawaii is the only state that grows coffee, and it doesn’t grow enough to satisfy nationwide demand.
Thirdly, other countries can make many things better and cheaper than we can here, no matter what we do. We do things well, they do things well, and that’s why we trade.
So, the next time an economist calls these times “uncertain,” they’d be more precise to call these times “unpredictable,” because the “uncertainty” is deliberately created by one person – who is unpredictable.
Peter
Tag Archives: University of Michigan
WORKING LONGER WILL MAKE YOU SICKER
#RaisingTheRetirementAge #retirement #WorkingLonger #disabilities
The government continues to raise the retirement age.
People are working longer.
Yet, their health continues to decline.
Ben Steverman discussed this in an article for Bloomberg News. It was also published Oct. 24, 2017, in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
“The age-adjusted mortality rate in the U.S. rose 1.2 percent from 2014 to 2015, according to the Society of Actuaries,” the article reads. “That’s the first year-over-year increase since 2005, and only the second rise greater than 1 percent since 1980,” the article says.
So, Americans are retiring later, dying sooner and are sicker, the article says.
Almost one in three Americans age 65 to 69 is still working, along with almost one in five in their early 70s, the article says.
Americans in their late 50s have more serious health problems than people of those same ages 10 to 15 years ago, according to the article. To boot, cognitive skills have declined. Those with a retirement age of 66, 11 percent already have had some kind of dementia between ages 58 and 60, the article quotes a study by University of Michigan economists HwaJung Choi and Robert Schoeni.
Experts say obesity, high rates of suicide, drug overdoses and alcohol abuse have been cited as causes, the article says.
The higher death rates are good news for pension plans, the article points out.
“Americans may have already seen most of the benefits from previous positive developments that cut the death rate, such as a decline in smoking and medical advances like statins that fight cardiovascular disease,” the article reads.
So are you among the group that feels worse than you think you should for your age? Has the economic downturn of 2008 got you working at a job you hate, when it’s high time for you to retire?
Perhaps a solution to the latter problem may relieve the difficulties of the former. There are many ways to make money beyond a traditional W-2 job – especially one that you hate, or that is making you sick. To check out one of the best such vehicles, message me.
And though pension plans may like this news – the Society of Actuaries calculates a typical pension plan’s obligations could fall by 0.7 to 1 percent , the article says – not everyone is fortunate enough to have a pension.
That puts the onus on every worker to make sure their retirement is not only survivable, but potentially prosperous.
This may entail some thought outside the proverbial box, especially if your employer is not providing you a pension.
If you’re young, start saving your money sooner. Cut out that extra coffee-shop visit or extra meal out, and put that money toward your retirement.
If you are older, not only must you think about how long you WANT to work, but also how long you will BE ABLE to work. It may not be an illness that gets you. You may be one bad manager or one reorganization away from a dead career.
You may not be able to solve health problems, but money problems can be conquered. You just have to have the best life you can, and try to live as long as possible.
Peter