#uncertainty #unpredictability #investing #tariffs #InvestmentClimate
How does one invest in a time of uncertainty, as we are in now?
Betsey Stevenson, economics and public policy professor at the University of Michigan, and former chief economist at the U.S. Labor Department, discussed this on MSNBC’s “All In with Chris Hayes on May 15, 2025.
She basically said it was difficult for investors and businesses to plan when things change so frequently.
She and other economists consider this time “uncertain,” as tariffs are implemented, adjusted and/or paused almost daily.
In fact, most investment climates, save for mattress money or insured bank accounts, are “uncertain.” Investors do not know for sure whether the risk(s) they are taking will pan out. They can judge, based on fundamentals and research, the likelihood of an investment panning out.
They also can judge the economic climate to see whether their decisions are more or less likely to pay off.
But, as with all risks, there is always a chance of an investment not proving worthy.
A pandemic, a natural disaster or other unanticipated circumstances could suddenly affect the investment performance.
Or, the company or venture in which one is investing could fail because of human error or mismanagement that one may not foresee.
So, all investments, no matter the climate, are uncertain.
What is happening today makes investing more unpredictable.
Investors are unable to forecast, even if the entity is a good risk on its face, whether the investment pays off.
The purpose of tariffs, essentially, is to urge companies to import less, and make more things in the U.S.
There are myriad problems with that. First, it takes many years for a company, if it were to decide to make more things here, to set up the capacity to do it – build or convert a factory, hire the right people, buy the needed equipment (perhaps from a foreign maker) etc.
Who knows what would happen to the tariffs during that conversion period.
Secondly, there are things that we just can’t grow in the U.S. Bananas are tariffed, yet we do not have the climate to grow them. Coffee is tariffed, but Hawaii is the only state that grows coffee, and it doesn’t grow enough to satisfy nationwide demand.
Thirdly, other countries can make many things better and cheaper than we can here, no matter what we do. We do things well, they do things well, and that’s why we trade.
So, the next time an economist calls these times “uncertain,” they’d be more precise to call these times “unpredictable,” because the “uncertainty” is deliberately created by one person – who is unpredictable.
Peter
Tag Archives: MSNBC
‘YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT YOU’VE GOT TILL IT’S GONE’
#government #GovernmentCuts #GovernmentEfficiency #GoodGovernment
“They paved paradise, put up a parking lot.”
That Joni Mitchell lyric rings true as certain government programs that many cherish get chopped.
We all think of government as too big, spending too much and we, as citizens, don’t really know what all those people do.
But, we learn all too well when we go to a government office for, say, Social Security information, a driver’s license or to mail a package.
When staff at those places get cut, the wait is much longer. In some places, you can wait hours to see a Social Security counselor, or to renew a driver’s license.
When government affects us, we feel the cuts.
MSNBC news anchor Ali Velshi pointed out that some of the government agencies we don’t know much about, or don’t hear about regularly, are working well BECAUSE we don’t hear much about them.
In other words, if they were full of fraud and waste, we would know it because a journalist, inspector general or other watchdog would find out and point it out.
By the way, oversight personnel are among the priority cuts in this milieu, BECAUSE those doing the cutting do not want people to know what they are doing, or how they are doing it, until it’s too late.
The cutting of government agencies and personnel that’s being done today seems haphazard, at best. The chainsaw approach will lead to some mistakes, Elon Musk says, and his Department of Government Efficiency will fix those mistakes as they occur, he said.
Everyone wants government to be as efficient as it can be. No one wants government, or those in it, to commit fraud.
But, throwing the baby out with the bathwater will lead to a dead, or badly hurt, baby. We may not know that until we actually have to wait hours for badly needed service, or, when benefits we are entitled to suddenly stop coming.
Government has a function in all of our lives. We don’t often hear about, or realize, those functions until they stop. As another Joni Mitchell lyric in the same song says: “You don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone.”
The best way to make government more efficient is to first look for the good that government does, and either let it be or enhance it.
If services are duplicated between or among agencies, consolidate those tasks in one place.
If tasks can be accomplished with fewer people, or if machines can replace people more efficiently, by all means make those changes.
People have said that government should be run like a business. But, government is different from business, in that the process of how things get done can be as important, or even more so, than the result.
Not all government work can be easily quantified. The service one might get from a good government employee who meets an individual’s need can be as important as the number of needs that person may meet in a given day, week, month or year.
And, if that person meets YOUR need properly, you won’t really care how much that person costs.
We all need government. We all need good government. We all should be willing to pay for good government that is as efficient and corruption-free as possible.
Peter
“They paved paradise, put up a parking lot.”
That Joni Mitchell lyric rings true as certain government programs that many cherish get chopped.
We all think of government as too big, spending too much and we, as citizens, don’t really know what all those people do.
But, we learn all too well when we go to a government office for, say, Social Security information, a driver’s license or to mail a package.
When staff at those places get cut, the wait is much longer. In some places, you can wait hours to see a Social Security counselor, or to renew a driver’s license.
When government affects us, we feel the cuts.
MSNBC news anchor Ali Velshi pointed out that some of the government agencies we don’t know much about, or don’t hear about regularly, are working well BECAUSE we don’t hear much about them.
In other words, if they were full of fraud and waste, we would know it because a journalist, inspector general or other watchdog would find out and point it out.
By the way, oversight personnel are among the priority cuts in this milieu, BECAUSE those doing the cutting do not want people to know what they are doing, or how they are doing it, until it’s too late.
The cutting of government agencies and personnel that’s being done today seems haphazard, at best. The chainsaw approach will lead to some mistakes, Elon Musk says, and his Department of Government Efficiency will fix those mistakes as they occur, he said.
Everyone wants government to be as efficient as it can be. No one wants government, or those in it, to commit fraud.
But, throwing the baby out with the bathwater will lead to a dead, or badly hurt, baby. We may not know that until we actually have to wait hours for badly needed service, or, when benefits we are entitled to suddenly stop coming.
Government has a function in all of our lives. We don’t often hear about, or realize, those functions until they stop. As another Joni Mitchell lyric in the same song says: “You don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone.”
The best way to make government more efficient is to first look for the good that government does, and either let it be or enhance it.
If services are duplicated between or among agencies, consolidate those tasks in one place.
If tasks can be accomplished with fewer people, or if machines can replace people more efficiently, by all means make those changes.
People have said that government should be run like a business. But, government is different from business, in that the process of how things get done can be as important, or even more so, than the result.
Not all government work can be easily quantified. The service one might get from a good government employee who meets an individual’s need can be as important as the number of needs that person may meet in a given day, week, month or year.
And, if that person meets YOUR need properly, you won’t really care how much that person costs.
We all need government. We all need good government. We all should be willing to pay for good government that is as efficient and corruption-free as possible.
Peter
THINKING OF INVESTING IN CRYPTO CURRENCY? THINK REALLY HARD
#CryptoCurrency #crypto #investing #InvestmentPlans #FinancialSecurity
Crypto currency looks appealing as an investment, but there are many pitfalls.
Without going further, the best way to invest for your future is a plan for slow, gradual growth over time. There are quick bucks, but they are not always sustainable. There are shiny objects, trends and fads. But they are seldom permanent.
As for crypto, it is seen as a way to invest in a vehicle that is completely unregulated – off the financial grid of stocks, bonds, banks, metals, commodities, real estate etc., that all have rules and laws regulating them. Violating those rules is fraud, and quite punishable.
These are online memes. They have no value to back them up, other than the money people use to buy them. As traditional investment products have supply and demand scales, crypto has only a demand scale. Supply is irrelevant.
MSNBC news anchor Rachel Maddow compared crypto coins to Beanie Babies.
To those who don’t remember, the company Ty put out these stuffed toys decades ago that, according to the movement, would become very valuable. People were buying them in bulk for cheap, thinking they would become a collector’s item. When stores ran out of them, buyers stalked the UPS trucks, hoping to get back to the store as the new shipment arrived.
Today, they typically sell for about $6 each.
Hummel figurines were another past collector’s item. They were a bit more expensive than Beanie Babies, but their appreciation in value has become, well, suspect over the years.
Crypto is the new thing. Folks with lots of money are getting in on it. Some people have been charged with fraud in connection with it. They also can be hacked, and an investor could lose everything.
Another rule of thumb in investing: When the big investors decide to cash out, the smaller investor is left holding the bag. These small investors may have a nice online meme, but it could become worthless.
So, if you are thinking of investing in crypto because it looks easy, lots of folks are getting in on it and it is completely unregulated, stop. Get some good financial advice from someone you trust.
Whatever money you put into it could be gone tomorrow, or next month or next year.
Anything is possible. The demand for crypto could go on for years. The big guys may not cash out or commit fraud.
And, no investment of any kind, other than, perhaps, a bank account or CD that is insured, is guaranteed.
But, crypto may be worth an extra careful look.
The person of relatively low means almost always has the desire to make it big easily and never worry.
That’s why the lottery and casinos stay in business.
It may be too early to equate crypto with gambling, but it is plainly insecure as an investment.
Remember: Trends tire. Fads fade. And shiny objects lose their luster.
To repeat: If you want a secure financial future, be a good, diligent saver. Adopt a plan in which you contribute those savings over time. Stay disciplined and don’t spend the money too soon. Keep an eye on it, but don’t watch it constantly, because there will be ups and downs. Make changes as needed over time.
Staying relatively consistent with a good plan is the best way to secure your financial future.
Peter
Crypto currency looks appealing as an investment, but there are many pitfalls.
Without going further, the best way to invest for your future is a plan for slow, gradual growth over time. There are quick bucks, but they are not always sustainable. There are shiny objects, trends and fads. But they are seldom permanent.
As for crypto, it is seen as a way to invest in a vehicle that is completely unregulated – off the financial grid of stocks, bonds, banks, metals, commodities, real estate etc., that all have rules and laws regulating them. Violating those rules is fraud, and quite punishable.
These are online memes. They have no value to back them up, other than the money people use to buy them. As traditional investment products have supply and demand scales, crypto has only a demand scale. Supply is irrelevant.
MSNBC news anchor Rachel Maddow compared crypto coins to Beanie Babies.
To those who don’t remember, the company Ty put out these stuffed toys decades ago that, according to the movement, would become very valuable. People were buying them in bulk for cheap, thinking they would become a collector’s item. When stores ran out of them, buyers stalked the UPS trucks, hoping to get back to the store as the new shipment arrived.
Today, they typically sell for about $6 each.
Hummel figurines were another past collector’s item. They were a bit more expensive than Beanie Babies, but their appreciation in value has become, well, suspect over the years.
Crypto is the new thing. Folks with lots of money are getting in on it. Some people have been charged with fraud in connection with it. They also can be hacked, and an investor could lose everything.
Another rule of thumb in investing: When the big investors decide to cash out, the smaller investor is left holding the bag. These small investors may have a nice online meme, but it could become worthless.
So, if you are thinking of investing in crypto because it looks easy, lots of folks are getting in on it and it is completely unregulated, stop. Get some good financial advice from someone you trust.
Whatever money you put into it could be gone tomorrow, or next month or next year.
Anything is possible. The demand for crypto could go on for years. The big guys may not cash out or commit fraud.
And, no investment of any kind, other than, perhaps, a bank account or CD that is insured, is guaranteed.
But, crypto may be worth an extra careful look.
The person of relatively low means almost always has the desire to make it big easily and never worry.
That’s why the lottery and casinos stay in business.
It may be too early to equate crypto with gambling, but it is plainly insecure as an investment.
Remember: Trends tire. Fads fade. And shiny objects lose their luster.
To repeat: If you want a secure financial future, be a good, diligent saver. Adopt a plan in which you contribute those savings over time. Stay disciplined and don’t spend the money too soon. Keep an eye on it, but don’t watch it constantly, because there will be ups and downs. Make changes as needed over time.
Staying relatively consistent with a good plan is the best way to secure your financial future.
Peter
WHAT WILL DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE?
#vote #RegisterToVote #choices #ChooseWisely
Decisions, not conditions, determine one’s future.
That paraphrases a partial comment by California Gov. Gavin Newsom when asked by Jen Psaki what keeps him up at night these days.
Psaki is host of “Inside With Jen Psaki” on MSNBC. The show aired Oct. 20, 2024.
Newsom was discussing the upcoming presidential election. He was explaining that voting is a decision we all can make to help determine the future.
But, digging deeper into his comment, let’s analyze how each of us determines our future.
Do we let the conditions – most of which we cannot anticipate – determine our future? Or, do we take action to determine our future?
Some believe that no matter what actions they take, their future is somehow predetermined.
Perhaps that’s what they were taught as children. Did you ever have a parent, teacher or other elder tell you that this is what you were going to do — or were meant to do — for the rest of your life?
Or, have you been affected by circumstances, from which you believe you will never recover? Some victims of recent storms may feel that way, while others are determined to rebuild, or otherwise carry on.
Many are busy creating their future. They are saving and investing their money to help ensure security. Or, they are building a business with the intention that it will succeed, perhaps beyond their wildest dreams.
Perhaps one’s imagination does not extend that far. A person may just be looking for contentment rather than wild success.
Undoubtedly, there are small things one can do to ensure that.
But, regardless of your desires for the future, it’s largely up to you to make it happen. Generally, things don’t just happen serendipitously, like winning a lottery.
Usually, they are the result of decisions one makes throughout his or her life. One may decide to go to college – or not. One may decide to work for Employer X – or not. One may decide to get married and have children – or not.
Each of these decisions individually can really help determine one’s future.
But Newsom was talking about collective decisions – decisions made by lots of people individually that can determine everyone’s future.
Voting is such a decision. If everyone who is eligible to vote registers, and then votes, the future will be different – likely better – from having many decide not to vote because, say, they don’t like the choices.
When one is starving, usually he or she grabs what’s available to eat. Choices are immaterial.
There are choices in this election. Some may not like the choices offered. But, choosing the one you think is the best alternative – not necessarily the ultimate alternative – can help determine one’s individual and everyone’s collective futures.
Choose wisely, but, whomever you choose, vote.
Peter
Decisions, not conditions, determine one’s future.
That paraphrases a partial comment by California Gov. Gavin Newsom when asked by Jen Psaki what keeps him up at night these days.
Psaki is host of “Inside With Jen Psaki” on MSNBC. The show aired Oct. 20, 2024.
Newsom was discussing the upcoming presidential election. He was explaining that voting is a decision we all can make to help determine the future.
But, digging deeper into his comment, let’s analyze how each of us determines our future.
Do we let the conditions – most of which we cannot anticipate – determine our future? Or, do we take action to determine our future?
Some believe that no matter what actions they take, their future is somehow predetermined.
Perhaps that’s what they were taught as children. Did you ever have a parent, teacher or other elder tell you that this is what you were going to do — or were meant to do — for the rest of your life?
Or, have you been affected by circumstances, from which you believe you will never recover? Some victims of recent storms may feel that way, while others are determined to rebuild, or otherwise carry on.
Many are busy creating their future. They are saving and investing their money to help ensure security. Or, they are building a business with the intention that it will succeed, perhaps beyond their wildest dreams.
Perhaps one’s imagination does not extend that far. A person may just be looking for contentment rather than wild success.
Undoubtedly, there are small things one can do to ensure that.
But, regardless of your desires for the future, it’s largely up to you to make it happen. Generally, things don’t just happen serendipitously, like winning a lottery.
Usually, they are the result of decisions one makes throughout his or her life. One may decide to go to college – or not. One may decide to work for Employer X – or not. One may decide to get married and have children – or not.
Each of these decisions individually can really help determine one’s future.
But Newsom was talking about collective decisions – decisions made by lots of people individually that can determine everyone’s future.
Voting is such a decision. If everyone who is eligible to vote registers, and then votes, the future will be different – likely better – from having many decide not to vote because, say, they don’t like the choices.
When one is starving, usually he or she grabs what’s available to eat. Choices are immaterial.
There are choices in this election. Some may not like the choices offered. But, choosing the one you think is the best alternative – not necessarily the ultimate alternative – can help determine one’s individual and everyone’s collective futures.
Choose wisely, but, whomever you choose, vote.
Peter
YOUTH FACING FINANCIAL DISTRESS
#CampusProtests #youth #FinancialSecurity #GenerationalWealth #frustration
In generations past, parents always wanted their children to have it much better than they did.
Often, that was achieved. If parents worked at manual jobs, they wanted their kids to go to college, so they would not have to do manual jobs.
Many of today’s young people see no way they can have a better life, at least economically, than their parents.
That is, short of inheriting the wealth their parents accumulated.
Many of these young people come out of college with huge student debt. If they become, say, schoolteachers, there is hardly any way they can pay off that debt AND buy a house AND start a family etc., as far as they can see.
The protests on college campuses today seem to be over the war in the Middle East. But, author Scott Galloway, in his book, “The Algebra of Wealth: A Single Formula for Financial Security,” says young people are not seeing themselves as ever becoming better off than their parents.
That may lead to the frustration some students are expressing in the campus protests.
Galloway appeared on “Inside with Jen Psaki” on MSNBC May 5, 2024.
From another perspective, Nedra Rhone, “Real Life” columnist for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, writes that this year’s college graduates may have been deprived of both of a high school graduation ceremony because of the COVID-19 lockdowns of four years ago, and now perhaps of a college graduation ceremony because of the campus protests.
You have to feel for this generation, Rhone says. Her column on the subject also was published May 5, 2024
Financial security for young people – again, short of a big inheritance from mom and dad – is getting harder to achieve.
Today, unlike in decades past, going to work is a big cost in terms of commutes, child care etc. If the return paycheck hardly compensates for that, frustration can build. Working from home, if allowed, can ease that stress, but not everyone has that ability.
The good-paying jobs that result from expensive college educations don’t pay as well as one might think, when comparing the cost of living today with the cost of living their parents faced.
Housing costs are way up from decades ago, both in home prices and rents.
If one becomes a teacher, and, perhaps, marries another teacher, even both of their paychecks may not give them enough to house themselves and otherwise enjoy life.
We are not even talking about those who do not get a college degree. Of course, those who go into the trades – plumbers, electricians etc. – can do very well because they will always be in demand. But, surprisingly few kids are exploring that route. After all, the work can be hard and long. Many may have even watched parents work hard in trades, and don’t want to do that.
So, the frustration among young kids today may have been building over time. Some may feel quite hopeless, which may spawn mental illness.
They may find the jobs they WANT to do don’t pay enough. They either have to do something else they may not like, have a “side hustle” in their free time or try to scrape together a living with what they make doing what they like.
Some still lean on mom and dad for help well into their adult lives. How on earth, some are thinking, are they ever going to retire?
There is no better formula, perhaps, than to live below one’s means, if that’s even possible, and put the leftover money into savings. Each time one gets a raise, put that into savings, if possible.
There is no easy answer for this young generation. But, by all means, they should focus on optimism, relationships and finding less costly enjoyments in life.
Peter
In generations past, parents always wanted their children to have it much better than they did.
Often, that was achieved. If parents worked at manual jobs, they wanted their kids to go to college, so they would not have to do manual jobs.
Many of today’s young people see no way they can have a better life, at least economically, than their parents.
That is, short of inheriting the wealth their parents accumulated.
Many of these young people come out of college with huge student debt. If they become, say, schoolteachers, there is hardly any way they can pay off that debt AND buy a house AND start a family etc., as far as they can see.
The protests on college campuses today seem to be over the war in the Middle East. But, author Scott Galloway, in his book, “The Algebra of Wealth: A Single Formula for Financial Security,” says young people are not seeing themselves as ever becoming better off than their parents.
That may lead to the frustration some students are expressing in the campus protests.
Galloway appeared on “Inside with Jen Psaki” on MSNBC May 5, 2024.
From another perspective, Nedra Rhone, “Real Life” columnist for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, writes that this year’s college graduates may have been deprived of both of a high school graduation ceremony because of the COVID-19 lockdowns of four years ago, and now perhaps of a college graduation ceremony because of the campus protests.
You have to feel for this generation, Rhone says. Her column on the subject also was published May 5, 2024
Financial security for young people – again, short of a big inheritance from mom and dad – is getting harder to achieve.
Today, unlike in decades past, going to work is a big cost in terms of commutes, child care etc. If the return paycheck hardly compensates for that, frustration can build. Working from home, if allowed, can ease that stress, but not everyone has that ability.
The good-paying jobs that result from expensive college educations don’t pay as well as one might think, when comparing the cost of living today with the cost of living their parents faced.
Housing costs are way up from decades ago, both in home prices and rents.
If one becomes a teacher, and, perhaps, marries another teacher, even both of their paychecks may not give them enough to house themselves and otherwise enjoy life.
We are not even talking about those who do not get a college degree. Of course, those who go into the trades – plumbers, electricians etc. – can do very well because they will always be in demand. But, surprisingly few kids are exploring that route. After all, the work can be hard and long. Many may have even watched parents work hard in trades, and don’t want to do that.
So, the frustration among young kids today may have been building over time. Some may feel quite hopeless, which may spawn mental illness.
They may find the jobs they WANT to do don’t pay enough. They either have to do something else they may not like, have a “side hustle” in their free time or try to scrape together a living with what they make doing what they like.
Some still lean on mom and dad for help well into their adult lives. How on earth, some are thinking, are they ever going to retire?
There is no better formula, perhaps, than to live below one’s means, if that’s even possible, and put the leftover money into savings. Each time one gets a raise, put that into savings, if possible.
There is no easy answer for this young generation. But, by all means, they should focus on optimism, relationships and finding less costly enjoyments in life.
Peter