#uncertainty #unpredictability #investing #tariffs #InvestmentClimate
How does one invest in a time of uncertainty, as we are in now?
Betsey Stevenson, economics and public policy professor at the University of Michigan, and former chief economist at the U.S. Labor Department, discussed this on MSNBC’s “All In with Chris Hayes on May 15, 2025.
She basically said it was difficult for investors and businesses to plan when things change so frequently.
She and other economists consider this time “uncertain,” as tariffs are implemented, adjusted and/or paused almost daily.
In fact, most investment climates, save for mattress money or insured bank accounts, are “uncertain.” Investors do not know for sure whether the risk(s) they are taking will pan out. They can judge, based on fundamentals and research, the likelihood of an investment panning out.
They also can judge the economic climate to see whether their decisions are more or less likely to pay off.
But, as with all risks, there is always a chance of an investment not proving worthy.
A pandemic, a natural disaster or other unanticipated circumstances could suddenly affect the investment performance.
Or, the company or venture in which one is investing could fail because of human error or mismanagement that one may not foresee.
So, all investments, no matter the climate, are uncertain.
What is happening today makes investing more unpredictable.
Investors are unable to forecast, even if the entity is a good risk on its face, whether the investment pays off.
The purpose of tariffs, essentially, is to urge companies to import less, and make more things in the U.S.
There are myriad problems with that. First, it takes many years for a company, if it were to decide to make more things here, to set up the capacity to do it – build or convert a factory, hire the right people, buy the needed equipment (perhaps from a foreign maker) etc.
Who knows what would happen to the tariffs during that conversion period.
Secondly, there are things that we just can’t grow in the U.S. Bananas are tariffed, yet we do not have the climate to grow them. Coffee is tariffed, but Hawaii is the only state that grows coffee, and it doesn’t grow enough to satisfy nationwide demand.
Thirdly, other countries can make many things better and cheaper than we can here, no matter what we do. We do things well, they do things well, and that’s why we trade.
So, the next time an economist calls these times “uncertain,” they’d be more precise to call these times “unpredictable,” because the “uncertainty” is deliberately created by one person – who is unpredictable.
Peter
Tag Archives: uncertainty
RISK IS A GREAT TEACHER
#risk #failure
We have to start life somewhere.
When we do, our relationship with the future is, well, complicated.
Kate O’Neill, founder and principal of KO Insights, discussed this idea in a May 11, 2014, column in The Tennessean newspaper in Nashville.
O’Neill discussed a project she had worked on for a large firm. One of the executives asked her how long a particular feature would take. She told him eight months. He asked how sure she was in that projection. She answered, “70 percent.” He told her that the longer it takes to get something done, the more risk there is and the less certain we can be about it.
The lesson: “Every day could be your last,” O’Neill writes. “Whether it is or not, you can take intentional, meaningful risks today to build the future you might get to enjoy.”
We hear a lot of talk today about uncertainty, as if forgetting the old adage that the only things certain are death and taxes. Part of the uncertainty talk is about taxes, and the fear of rising taxes is keeping some potential employers from expanding, so they say.
No one can know what will come next, but it should never stop us from acting. If you know you have something good, go for it. If you are unsure that what you have is good, then it may be best to stop, think and evaluate. How can I make this idea that I THINK might be good a little clearer to me?
Fear, sometimes irrational fear, can sometimes prevent us from doing something that would be good for us. Don’t let fear, particularly irrational fear, stop you.
Don’t blow something off because you THINK you know it may hurt you, before determining for certain that it will. In other words, standing in front of a moving train certainly could hurt you, so don’t do it. But examining a new business venture, or interviewing for a job that you may not think you can do may benefit you. The worst that can happen is failure that you are certain to learn from. The best that could happen is a very positive life-changing experience.
You feel great when you’re “in the zone.” But if that zone is a comfort zone, be wary. The comfort could disappear, then what?
O’Neill writes that our complicated relationship with the future can make us live our days in a balance of hope and impatience. Have you ever told your (pick one: parents, spouse, teachers) that you are onto something big, and they ask you when you expect to achieve success? Though you would like it to be tomorrow, success often doesn’t come quickly. You may have an idea of a perfect time, but that perfect time may come and go. If you know what you have, and what you are doing, are good, don’t give up because your predicted timing has come and gone. As O’Neill says: “try, fail, learn adjust. Try, succeed, learn, adjust. Then, try, fail, learn, adjust” etc.
If you are open to looking for something that could give you the future you want, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau. You will see how others are living their dreams, and how you could, too.
If you fear uncertainty, learn that uncertainty is a way of life. But don’t avoid positive action because you fear the uncertainty. Take, as O’Neill calls them, meaningful risks. Step outside the comfort zone if the comfort has disappeared. You will survive. You could thrive, if you maintain the drive. Forget the fret. It wastes energy.
You may not know the perfect time, but it is out there if you keep looking for it.
Peter
RISK IS A GREAT TEACHER
#taketherisk
We have to start life somewhere.
When we do, our relationship with the future is, well, complicated.
Kate O’Neill, founder and principal of KO Insights, discussed this idea in a May 11, 2014, column in The Tennessean newspaper in Nashville.
O’Neill discussed a project she had worked on for a large firm. One of the executives asked her how long a particular feature would take. She told him eight months. He asked how sure she was in that projection. She answered, “70 percent.” He told her that the longer it takes to get something done, the more risk there is and the less certain we can be about it.
The lesson: “Every day could be your last,” O’Neill writes. “Whether it is or not, you can take intentional, meaningful risks today to build the future you might get to enjoy.”
We hear a lot of talk today about uncertainty, as if forgetting the old adage that the only things certain are death and taxes. Part of the uncertainty talk is about taxes, and the fear of rising taxes is keeping some potential employers from expanding, so they say.
No one can know what will come next, but it should never stop us from acting. If you know you have something good, go for it. If you are unsure that what you have is good, then it may be best to stop, think and evaluate. How can I make this idea that I THINK might be good a little clearer to me?
Fear, sometimes irrational fear, can sometimes prevent us from doing something that would be good for us. Don’t let fear, particularly irrational fear, stop you.
Don’t blow something off because you THINK you know it may hurt you, before determining for certain that it will. In other words, standing in front of a moving train certainly could hurt you, so don’t do it. But examining a new business venture, or interviewing for a job that you may have never done before may benefit you. The worst that can happen is failure that you are certain to learn from. The best that could happen is a very positive life-changing experience.
You feel great when you’re “in the zone.” But if that zone is a comfort zone, be wary. The comfort could disappear, then what?
O’Neill writes that our complicated relationship with the future can make us live our days in a balance of hope and impatience. Have you ever told your (pick one: parents, spouse, teachers) that you are onto something big, and they ask you when you expect to achieve success? Though you would like it to be tomorrow, success often doesn’t come quickly. You may have an idea of a perfect time, but that perfect time may come and go. If you know what you have, and what you are doing, are good, don’t give up because your predicted timing has come and gone. As O’Neill says: “try, fail, learn adjust. Try, succeed, learn, adjust. Then, try, fail, learn, adjust” etc.
If you are open to looking for something that could give you the future you want, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau. You will see how others are living their dreams, and how you could, too.
If you fear uncertainty, learn that uncertainty is a way of life. But don’t avoid positive action because you fear the uncertainty. Take, as O’Neill calls them, meaningful risks. Step outside the comfort zone if the comfort has disappeared. You will survive. You could thrive, if you maintain the drive. Forget the fret. It wastes energy.
You may not know the perfect time, but it is out there if you keep looking for it.
Peter
UNCERTAINTY: THE NEW NORMAL
Most of us just want to fit in.
We value community, rules, an education, a good job, a life box.
But what if we think outside the life box?
John J. Murphy did just that. The author of “Half Full: Your Perception Becomes Your Reality,” was born on Friday the 13th. His last name is synonymous with the law of things going wrong. He’s had many life-threatening mishaps, gave up a good job and got divorced. Yet, all of these things have made him look at life as “the only time that matters is right now.”
We were all taught to plan for the future. Make sacrifices now and reap the rewards later. That is great advice that has helped many people. But Murphy teaches us that life is filled with unexpected turns and unplanned moments. As he says, we must learn to let go, and let flow.
Murphy doesn’t advocate doing nothing and letting life happen. One cannot go through life with no purpose, no action and no ambition. But he recommends not getting attached to your situation to the point of being miserable, or unable to respond to an excellent opportunity that you may not have expected.
Murphy had a great job that he hated. He was willing to give up that job, take another that paid less, but that he enjoyed more. Today, he’s a well-regarded teacher, consultant and author. His divorce hit him like a ton of bricks at first. But as soon as he gained perspective, he and his ex-wife became, and are still today, great friends.
His message may boil down to being open for the unexpected. Your parents, teachers, bosses and preachers may have given you solid grounding throughout your life. But only you can know what’s right for you. Sometimes, you may not know what’s right, but you definitely know what’s wrong.
Are you not where you want to be financially? Do you have a job that pays you well, yet is killing you? Are you ready to find your way, but may not know in which direction your way is?
If you are open and ambitious, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau. It could not only give you potential financial security, it may take the work stress away and could show you the direction of your way.
So don’t give in to life. Give yourself life. If you view your glass as half-empty, as Murphy puts it, you have to wonder whether what’s in the glass is worth having anyway.
It’s easy to need something, and not know what that something is. To find it, you have to keep looking. You have to go through a lot of what you don’t want, to find what you do want. Sometimes, what your elders and mentors thought was good for you, may not be.
Author and speaker Andy Andrews also talks a lot about perspective. When he was homeless, living under a beach pier and eating sardines, his mentor, Jones, taught him that he was enjoying seafood with an ocean view.
We hear a lot about clouds and silver linings. When bad things happen, good people always, eventually, see the positive. If they don’t see the positive right away, they know it will make itself evident. God may close a door and leave a window cracked. We may not see the cracked window right away. But we have confidence to keep looking.
Peter