#jobs #recession #economics #wages
The recent jobs report was double what was expected.
Yet, there is talk of recession.
It’s been said that a recession is defined by how each individual feels about his or her situation.
There are a few questions about the data, and economic perceptions here.
First, if there are a record number of jobs, are they all being filled? Many employers are begging for workers at all levels. Therefore, are they just creating empty slots on a payroll?
Secondly, if the economy has declined for two straight quarters – the technical definition of recession – shouldn’t employers be laying people off, not hiring?
In fact, many companies, Oracle, for example, are laying off people. But, is this a function of technological changes? Remember, as technologies evolve, the masters of the previous technology may not be needed when the new technology emerges. Changing technologies may mean changing staffs.
Thirdly, many people perceive we are heading toward recession because things are costing more, like food and gasoline. Inflation is indeed here, but that has many causes that are unrelated to a declining economy. The aforementioned labor shortages may be one, as companies have to pay workers more to hire or keep them. Supply-chain issues caused by the pandemic may be another, along with the war in Ukraine etc.
So, you may not feel that the economy is clicking on all cylinders, even if it may be. Inflation will ease as buyers naturally cut back. Therefore, ask yourself: is your job paying you more since the pandemic restrictions were lifted? Certainly, you are paying more for what you buy, which may mitigate your raise, but you could be paying more without getting a raise.
By the way, if you didn’t get a raise, feel free to look for something else. The jobs, and needs, are out there, and you may have more leverage as an employee than you’ve ever had.
Some describe this economy as complicated. Perhaps, it is. Suffice it to say that after pandemic lockdowns, there is pent-up demand not only to buy things, but to do things. And, many of those who sell or provide services to meet that demand are still staffing up to accomplish that.
Therefore, there will be some shortages and closings because there aren’t enough people to provide the products and services.
You, as a consumer, will feel that, and it won’t necessarily feel good. But, as the saying goes, one cannot turn a battleship around quickly. It will take time to resolve.
If you are feeling down about the economy, think of it this way: If you got a raise, chances are the raise will not go away. If prices now are eating away at the raise, and you feel you are no better off than you were, as inflation comes down, your raise will likely still be there.
If what you do for a living is becoming obsolete, and you can see it, try something else. We all have to adjust as times and technology change.
Sure, it’s no easy task to try something different. And, of course, if you learn something different, and THAT becomes obsolete, you are going to ask yourself “why did I bother?” The message here seems to be to keep learning and trying new things.
This economy is complicated. It is in transition. We all may have to muddle through for a time for things to get better.
But, we can say with some confidence that they usually do.
Peter
Tag Archives: recession
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES HIGHER FOR OLDER WORKERS
#coronavirus #COVID19 #FlattenTheCurve #pandemic #OlderWorkers #jobs
In this day and age, it’s tough getting old.
For the first time in 50 years, older workers are facing higher unemployment rates than those in the middle of their careers.
Sarah Skidmore Sell quoted that stat from a study by the New School in her article for the Associated Press. It was published Oct. 21, 2020, in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
The pandemic has hurt workers of all ages, the article says, but the New School researchers found that workers 56 and older lost jobs sooner, were rehired more slowly and continue to struggle keeping jobs more than workers 35 to 54, Sell writes.
In every recession since the 1970s, older workers were able to use their seniority to better preserve jobs, the article says.
Now, older face age discrimination, and employers are more reluctant to bring back older workers because of their health risks in light of the pandemic, the article says.
That means more early, and often involuntary, retirements and more financial insecurity as people age, the article says.
Let’s examine this more closely. Retirement in today’s world is not what it once was. That is, you could work as long as you wanted to, and as long as you were able, and retired on your own terms many years ago.
Today, workers don’t know whether each day they go into work will be their last. If employers don’t want you, or see your non-entry-level salary as a financial burden to them, they will find a way to get you to go. Though overt age discrimination may be illegal in most places, if an employer wants you out, he or she will find a way, within the law, to get you to leave, if not terminate you outright.
For the worker, it means planning as best you can for the day you walk into work, only to have to walk out for good.
When you walk out, think about your opportunities to find other work. Likely, you’ll find that most other, available work will pay considerably less than you were making.
What to do? First, if you live where the cost of living is high, think about moving. There are many locales with more reasonable living costs. If you have to take a job with a lower paycheck, you may as well cut your living expenses, unless there is some other non-financial reason to live where you live.
If you are lucky enough to land a job that allows you to work from home, and you don’t have to live close to your work, move anyway, if you can. Cut your living costs, if you can.
Also, there are many programs out there that allow you to augment, even well surpass, the income you have earned at your traditional job. These programs require no specific background or education, just a mind open enough to take a look, and the ability to devote a few part-time hours a week if you still have a job.
To learn about one of the best such programs, message me.
All this boils down to you having to take charge of your own financial well-being. Have a plan, or plans, in place that will prepare you for the day you don’t expect. Who knows? Those who plan well enough can walk into work, and walk out for good, with a smile.
It’s certainly wrong for employers to discriminate against older workers. Many of them can work circles around younger counterparts. But often, they only look at numbers and potential risks. That means discrimination can, and will, happen in some form to many.
So, expect the unexpected when it comes to your job. Many jobs are no longer there for as long as the employees want them to be.
Peter
INCOME INEQUALITY IN BOOMING ECONOMY
IncomeInequality #jobs #recession #incomes
Despite strong job growth, Metro Atlanta incomes have faltered since 2007.
So writes Michael E. Kanell, business and economics reporter for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. His article on the matter appeared March 25, 2019.
“At the same time, racial inequality remained stubbornly high, even as the economy rebounded from the Great Recession,” Kanell writes.
The Atlanta region ranks 33rd in the country in economic growth, and 57th for inclusion by race, the article states.
Though Kanell covers the Atlanta area, the same thing likely can be applied elsewhere.
As a person, economically and otherwise, are you better off than you were 11 years ago? Have you been able to hold on to that good job you had back then? Has your employer downsized, leaving you out to find other work? Does the other work you may – or may not – have found pay as well as the previous job? Have you been forced to retire long before you wanted to ? Do you have enough saved for retirement to make it at all comfortable?
These and any number of questions can be posed today after a decade recovering from the Great Recession.
Some folks may have lucked out and found better economic circumstances. But many have not. Yes, the economy is growing. But if your individual economy has not grown, in fact has shrunk, you are not alone.
So, if you are in that situation, what can you do?
Fortunately, there are solutions out there, other than trying to juggle multiple, low-paying and time-consuming jobs. There are vehicles out there that potentially can enable you not only to recover economically, but prosper – perhaps as you never have before. To check out one of the best such vehicles, message me.
You can sit around, fret and complain about your situation, or you can do something about it. Don’t expect some serendipitous event to come along to pull you out of your economic funk. Don’t expect a winning lottery ticket to solve your problem.
But you could be open to doing something you perhaps thought you would never do. It may take you out of your comfort zone, but if you’ve had to downsize your economic outlook, that can’t be really comfortable.
Kanell’s article says economically the best-performing regions, according to the Brookings Institution, are: Austin, Texas; San Antonio; San Jose, Calif.; and Dallas.
If you don’t live in one of those areas, or even if you do, you may not have benefitted individually from the nationwide economic growth.
Don’t look at the well-to-do with envy. Look at them as inspiration. You potentially could be among them if you are willing to look at programs that, starting with a part-time effort by you, could yield a pot of gold for you over time.
Times were tough a decade ago. Companies are still downsizing. Manufacturing plants are closing, or becoming more automated.
You can worry about it, or do something about it. It’s your choice.
Peter
‘GIGGERS’ AND THE YOU ECONOMY
#giggers #SelfEmployed #SoloPractitioners #NonEmployerEstablishments
South Florida is loaded with “giggers.”
Atlanta, Dallas, Washington and Boston have also seen a surge.
What are “giggers?” They are one-person shops or, in bureaucratic parlance, “non-employer establishments.”
“Between 1997 and 2015, the number of non-employer establishments – that is, self-employed, freelance workers and independent contractors that aren’t often counted in traditional government measures of job growth – in the Miami area rose 142 percent,” writes Nancy Dahlberg in an article for the Miami Herald. The article was also published Dec. 25, 2017, in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
That growth is more than twice the national average of 58.6 percent, Dahlberg writes. The other metro areas showing growth behind Miami include Atlanta (126 percent), Dallas (95 percent), Washington, D.C. (78 percent) and Boston (31 percent), according to the article.
This trend shows that people with imagination and a marketable skill who want to work, but don’t want to be employed or are having trouble finding a traditional W-2 job, are using their skill and imagination to help others, while earning money.
The article also quotes a 2016 McKinsey Global Institute report that found about 27 percent of working-age people in the U.S. and Europe engage at least partially in independent work. It also quotes a 2016 study by the Minneapolis Fed that found the engagement at 37 percent in the U.S. alone, and government estimates show that rate could rise to 40 percent by 2020.
The 2008 recession has had lots of effects on lots of people. Some chose to continue to look for new jobs, with varied success. One should consider himself or herself incredibly fortunate if he or she had lost a good job, but subsequently found a better one. For many, if they have found new work at all, it pays less than they were making before. Therefore, a lifestyle adjustment became necessary.
But suppose you have some imagination, but don’t have a really marketable skill that you can peddle on your own? Or, what if the skills that you have are difficult, if not impossible, to ply in an independent setting?
Fortunately, there are many ways out there that you can earn a potentially significant income – perhaps even more than you’d ever earned before – without having a W-2 job or any specific skill or background. To check out one of the best, message me.
Most of us dream of working until a certain age, then perhaps concentrating on a favorite hobby or hobbies to occupy our time after working. For some, retirement came before they wanted, or were ready, and they are using their hobbies or skills as a solo practitioner.
For some, a lifestyle adjustment was required. Many of us dream of the time when we make a lifestyle adjustment only for the better.
We are moving toward a more “you economy,” in which you call your own shots, you solve your own economic problems and you advance your lifestyle.
What if you could do all those things, and help others do the same?
What if the “you economy” were not forced upon you by necessity, but presented to you as a gift?
What if that bad situation – a job loss – became the best thing that ever happened to you?
To borrow from John Lennon, you may say you’re a dreamer, but you’re not the only one.
Peter
WHY SO PESSIMISTIC, AMERICA?
#recession #unemployment #optimism
“In America today, women are liberated, while combined individual wealth is the highest in the world – China, in second place, barely has 35 percent of what we do.”
So writes Jack Hunter, politics editor for Rare.us, in a column published Aug. 28, 2016, in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
So why are so many Americans bummed out? Hunter asks.
The first reason, Hunter suspects, is that the country still hasn’t recovered fully from the 2008 recession.
“Comparatively low unemployment numbers mask massive workforce dropouts, and, while sage stagnation is partially a myth, pay still hasn’t risen as consistently as it might have,” Hunter writes.
He also blames the bombardment of the 24-hour news cycle, on which tragedy predominates. Finally, he blames a “tin-eared” government and political class that has little in common with those they regulate.
Let’s break down how things are. The recession produced gobs of unemployment. Those who have found new jobs in many cases are not being paid nearly what they were being paid beforehand. Many who haven’t found jobs have given up looking.
Despite good job availability in some areas – most big rigs on the road are advertising the need for drivers, for example – people either aren’t taking advantage of those openings, or may not be qualified to take those jobs.
Couple that with the fact that truck driving, in most cases, doesn’t pay what it once did, even though the work is just as hard, or even harder given the increased traffic on the roads. That’s a disincentive to wanting to take the jobs.
Eventually, wages will start to increase as demand for labor increases.
Although “now hiring” signs are popping not just on the trucks, but at other places of employment, most of the available jobs are those with which one would have difficulty making a living. Many people are cobbling together a couple of part-time jobs to try to pay their bills. Folks like these are not going to necessarily embrace what’s good about America.
The news cycle spends lots of time on bad news, but the bad news has to be reported. Many news outlets try to balance off the bad news with some good, uplifting stories. Hunter talks about America’s success at the 2016 Summer Olympics as one of those uplifting stories.
Certainly, a polarized government like ours will be slow to solve problems, but the cure for most of the country’s ailments lies outside the government’s wheelhouse.
So, on balance, life is pretty good for a lot of people. If you don’t believe you are among them, there are ways in which you can act to improve your situation. There are many ways potentially to make money without the benefit of a traditional W-2 job. To find them, you first have to be willing to look, perhaps, outside your comfort zone. If you’d like to check out one of the best, message me. You might see how people perhaps just like you took their futures into their own hands and helped others do the same.
To get that positive mind-set, look for the good things in your life – friends, family etc. Focus on those. Then, begin to do all that YOU can to find a solution to the problems in your life. The holiday season is perhaps the best time of year to do that. The joy of what is good shines at Christmas, and that joy can spark optimism for the new year.
Remember, too, that, for most of us, there is no great benefactor out there. We must provide for our own futures. If you see life that way, you’ll be better equipped to celebrate the ups and deal with the downs.
Peter
STOP! BREATHE! : PART 1
stop #breathe #CalmDown #suicides
Waiting in line. Sitting in bumper-to-bumper traffic. A driver cuts you off while texting.
Life has its annoyances.
How do YOU deal with what annoys you?
Many people show their anger in destructive ways.
Others don’t let annoyances provoke overreaction. They breathe, and deal with it.
Gracie Bonds Staples, columnist for The Atlanta Journal Constitution, discussed this in a recent column.
Staples writes that she has honked her horn at distracted drivers at traffic lights. She was simply trying to let the driver know the light was green and it was time to go. It never occurred to her that such a thing could provoke enough anger that the driver wanted to kill – perhaps not literally – her.
“Any perceived offense, not matter how small, can turn bad quickly,” Staples writes.
She pointed to a recent article about a driver honking at another car. The driver and passengers in the vehicle being honked at followed the other car home and fired a warning shot. Those drivers returned to the man’s home two days later and fired several rounds at the man’s home.
Fortunately, a neighbor saw and reported them, so they were arrested.
Staples also talked about a wife who was so angry that her husband didn’t buy her a Valentine’s Day gift, that she attacked him with a baseball bat.
It’s difficult to imagine that such incidents provoke such overreaction. But there could be an explanation.
The economic recovery after the 2008 recession didn’t help everyone. Many people who lost jobs, homes and other financial assets in the downturn have never recovered. These people look at those who’ve benefitted from the recovery with disdain, and want revenge.
That vengeance is so bottled up that they take their anger out on other things and other people. Little annoyances become big offenses. Suddenly, they feel they have nothing else to lose.
The economic downturn has led to an increase in suicides, drug and alcohol abuse and other destructive behavior, according to recent reports.
If you are among those who are mad at the world because your life has changed for the worse, and you see no way it will get better, stop. Breathe. Calm down. Find a place at which you are at peace, sit and relax.
Whatever your instincts tell you, remember that your reaction could make your life worse than it already is – not to mention hurt others who mean you no harm.
There ARE solutions to economic losses, if you are willing to look for them. For one of the best, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau. You’ll find people who’ve been broke, but found a solution, and are helping others do the same.
No matter your troubles, know that America is still a great place. The future is not dim, but bright. You can recover from your troubles without resorting to misplaced anger. Sure, little things can be annoying, but remember not to fret about things you can’t control, and work on the things you can control.
As sure as the sun rises every day, nothing is as bad as it seems. In fact, the future is something to very much look forward to.
Peter
THE GREAT INFLECTION
We are easing out of the Great Recession, though it is still difficult for some.
We are heading into the Great Inflection, according to New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman.
We are in a hyper-connected – not just connected – world, Friedman asserts. We are seeing more wealth created, and much better productivity in the workplace.
But, that isn’t translating into lower unemployment. You see, some of the jobs lost in the Great Recession will never return.
Think back to the time when World War II ended, the Industrial Revolution was in full swing, labor unions had great clout and – here’s the big one – technological progress was relatively slow.
If you got laid off from a job, chances are it was a slow period for your employer. When things picked up, you were back to work. Men – most married women did not work then – would crow about “steady” work. In other words, there were few peaks and valleys in their business. They got a paycheck every week for their 40 hours, plus, for some, the bonus of overtime.
College education was for the few. Parents wanted their sons to get out and work, and their daughters to get married. That idyllic life didn’t work out for everyone, but it did for a large number of people.
EACH DOWNTURN MEANS JOBS LOST FOREVER
Contrast that period to today. If you have a job, you fear change, because it comes quickly and you don’t know how that change will affect you, until it does. Companies reorganize one day, and a few months later they do it again. Each time, usually, more people lose their jobs, replaced by some machine which, likely, will be “old” technology a year later.
As companies cut jobs, many of them are creating new and different ones, either at the same time, or a short time later. The people being cut may not fill the bill for the new positions. Something to think about: if your current job is a series of repetitive tasks that don’t require you to create anything, you should be thinking about learning something new. Chances are, your job will not last as long as you want it to.
Some of the folks from those earlier working days, once they hit a certain age, balked at learning “new stuff.” They were counting the days until they could retire. Today, if you don’t learn new stuff, regardless of your age, you will be gone, probably sooner than you want to be.
Friedman points out that with rapid change, the workforce has to keep learning. Your schooling, whatever it is, won’t last you the rest of your life anymore. It will always be with you, but education today is merely an entry vehicle. The people who survive in today’s workplace are those who are always learning, who can deal with change in stride and can foresee what might be coming. As Friedman puts it, you have to provide added value to the technology.
For those of you either shut out of the modern job market, or who live in fear that one day you will be, visit www.bign.com/pbilodeau. It’s one of the best of several ways you can create wealth WHILE you await your fate in the job market. One day, perhaps, you might not even need the job market.
In much of the discussion about employment and the economy today, many long for those old days. Jobs were “protected.” Work was, for many, “steady.” Workers had a certain security that they were convinced was never going away. Many today fight the changes that connectivity, technology and other productivity enhancements have brought. They want it stopped. But, it’s like standing on railroad tracks and holding out your arms, thinking you are going to stop one of those bullet trains.
Progress will happen with or without you. You can choose to fight the Great Inflection, or you can work to be part of it. If you can’t beat it, either join it or look for a new plan. Put your fate in YOUR hands.
Peter