#jobs #recession #economics #wages
The recent jobs report was double what was expected.
Yet, there is talk of recession.
It’s been said that a recession is defined by how each individual feels about his or her situation.
There are a few questions about the data, and economic perceptions here.
First, if there are a record number of jobs, are they all being filled? Many employers are begging for workers at all levels. Therefore, are they just creating empty slots on a payroll?
Secondly, if the economy has declined for two straight quarters – the technical definition of recession – shouldn’t employers be laying people off, not hiring?
In fact, many companies, Oracle, for example, are laying off people. But, is this a function of technological changes? Remember, as technologies evolve, the masters of the previous technology may not be needed when the new technology emerges. Changing technologies may mean changing staffs.
Thirdly, many people perceive we are heading toward recession because things are costing more, like food and gasoline. Inflation is indeed here, but that has many causes that are unrelated to a declining economy. The aforementioned labor shortages may be one, as companies have to pay workers more to hire or keep them. Supply-chain issues caused by the pandemic may be another, along with the war in Ukraine etc.
So, you may not feel that the economy is clicking on all cylinders, even if it may be. Inflation will ease as buyers naturally cut back. Therefore, ask yourself: is your job paying you more since the pandemic restrictions were lifted? Certainly, you are paying more for what you buy, which may mitigate your raise, but you could be paying more without getting a raise.
By the way, if you didn’t get a raise, feel free to look for something else. The jobs, and needs, are out there, and you may have more leverage as an employee than you’ve ever had.
Some describe this economy as complicated. Perhaps, it is. Suffice it to say that after pandemic lockdowns, there is pent-up demand not only to buy things, but to do things. And, many of those who sell or provide services to meet that demand are still staffing up to accomplish that.
Therefore, there will be some shortages and closings because there aren’t enough people to provide the products and services.
You, as a consumer, will feel that, and it won’t necessarily feel good. But, as the saying goes, one cannot turn a battleship around quickly. It will take time to resolve.
If you are feeling down about the economy, think of it this way: If you got a raise, chances are the raise will not go away. If prices now are eating away at the raise, and you feel you are no better off than you were, as inflation comes down, your raise will likely still be there.
If what you do for a living is becoming obsolete, and you can see it, try something else. We all have to adjust as times and technology change.
Sure, it’s no easy task to try something different. And, of course, if you learn something different, and THAT becomes obsolete, you are going to ask yourself “why did I bother?” The message here seems to be to keep learning and trying new things.
This economy is complicated. It is in transition. We all may have to muddle through for a time for things to get better.
But, we can say with some confidence that they usually do.
Peter